College football needs nothing more than another BCS buster to crash the party this year and create more havoc and hand-wringing for the BCS officials come January. Another upset such as Boise State’s thrilling 43-42 win against Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl or Utah’s 31-17 thumping of Alabama in the 2009 Sugar Bowl could hopefully inch college football closer to a postseason playoff to decide the national champion at the end of the year and replace the game’s current garbage system.
I know money plays an important role, but I think that if more mid-major teams show they can play with the big boys, the pressure will mount on the NCAA to try something new. And if this past week’s top-25 upsets proved anything, it’s that the door is still wide open for one of these mid-major teams to step in and steal a spot in a BCS bowl.
With that in mind, there are three undefeated mid-major programs currently in the AP Top 25 poll — No. 5 Boise State, No. 11 TCU and No. 12 Houston. Which team has the best chance of earning a BCS at-large bid? Could two teams possibly make BCS bowls? Let’s tackle each team, check its résumé and see what the rest of its schedule holds.
No. 5 Boise State, Western Athletic Conference (WAC)
The Broncos, who started the year ranked No. 14, showcased their talent and their home blue “smurf turf” during the opening Thursday night of the season, hosting an Oregon team then-ranked in the top 25. Boise State came out on top 19-8. The Broncos have since run roughshod over their last three opponents — 48-0 against Miami (OH), 51-34 against Fresno State and 49-14 against Bowling Green — averaging 49.3 points per game in the process. Sophomore quarterback Kellen Moore has completed 70 of 102 passes (68.6 percent) for 932 yards and 10 touchdowns. Boise State did lose junior running back D.J. Harper for the year with a torn ACL in the Fresno State game but appears to have another capable back in junior Jeremy Avery, who is averaging 6.5 yards per rush. The Broncos arguably have played their two toughest opponents already — Oregon and Fresno State. Although the win against Oregon did not initially seem impressive after the Ducks struggled through the first couple weeks of the season, upon further review, the victory looks like a résumé-builder for Boise State. Oregon snapped Utah’s 16-game win streak with a 31-24 victory Sept. 19 and pounded top-10 ranked California 42-3 Saturday. Boise State’s strength of schedule — a significant component to the BCS formula — will only improve if Oregon continues to accumulate wins. Following non-conference games against UC-Davis and Tulsa, the Broncos reach the heart of their WAC schedule. Keep an eye on that Tulsa game. The Golden Hurricane hosts the Broncos Oct. 14 on primetime television, in what is sure to be a high-scoring affair. Tulsa sits at 3-1 and — although it did get shut out 45-0 at Oklahoma — is capable of winning a shootout against the Broncos. Boise State runs like a well-oiled machine, though, and unless it loses that game, the Broncos could cruise to another undefeated regular season and BCS bid.
No. 11 TCU, Mountain West Conference (MWC)
Virginia fans know a little bit more about TCU than these other teams because the Horned Frogs visited Scott Stadium Sept. 12 and put up 30 straight points against the lifeless Wahoos before two late Cavalier scores made the final score respectable. During their first home contest the following week, the Horned Frogs easily downed Texas State, 56-21. This past weekend, TCU defeated another ACC team, Clemson, 14-10, in Death Valley, reputed to be one of the toughest places to play in the nation. Still, two wins against ACC teams and a win against an FCS opponent do not exactly position the Horned Frogs for a BCS bid. Depending on how Clemson plays the rest of the season, that win could look fairly impressive, but right now, it doesn’t look like the Cavaliers will be giving any boosts to TCU’s résumé.
The Horned Frogs begin play in the MWC — which is arguably better than the ACC — Oct. 10 when they travel to Air Force, a perennially dangerous team with an excellent rushing attack. Two weeks later, TCU visits Brigham Young, which was itself an undefeated mid-major before it was upstaged at home by Florida State Sept. 19, 54-28. BYU should be another stiff test for the Frogs. The last important game for TCU will probably come at home Nov. 14 against Utah. The Frogs lost 13-10 to the Utes last season, so they’ll be seeking revenge at home this year. Although TCU may not boast any eye-opening victories thus far, it does showcase a stout defense and junior quarterback Andy Dalton has completed 50 of 71 passes (70 percent) for 625 yards and four touchdowns. Still, it seems more likely that TCU will stumble than Boise State during the rest of the regular season.
No. 12 Houston, Conference USA
Although the Cougars were unranked to begin the season, they have come out of nowhere to sit just outside the top 10 after only three games, thanks in large part to redshirt junior quarterback Case Keenum, who has completed 93 of 134 passes (69.4 percent) for 1,160 yards and eight touchdowns. After defeating Northwestern State 55-7 to open the season, Houston has knocked off back-to-back Big 12 opponents. After shocking Oklahoma State — which was playing at home and ranked No. 5 at the time — 45-35, the Cougars took care of Texas Tech 29-28 in the final minute of Saturday’s home game. That one-point win gave me a 3-5 record for Gameday picks last week. After proving me wrong, Houston is setting out to prove other doubters wrong.
The Cougars already have faced the toughest two-game stretch in their schedule, but some challenges lie ahead. They travel to Southeastern Conference foe Mississippi State Oct. 10, and even though the Bulldogs are one of the weaker teams in the SEC, a win there would still look great for Houston. The only other potential stumbling block I see is a Halloween home game against Southern Mississippi, which, as Cav fans know, possesses a strong offense. If Houston prevails in the West Division of CUSA, it will play in the championship game Dec. 5, which would be a home game if it posts a better conference record than the East Division winner. I think Houston has a better shot at making a BCS bowl than TCU, but its chances of going undefeated are lower than Boise State’s.
With five BCS bowl games, there are spots for four at-large teams. The champions of the six BCS conferences get automatic bids, and the remaining four spots go to the best teams according to the BCS rankings. A mid-major program will automatically qualify for a BCS spot if it finishes in the BCS top 12, or in the BCS top 16 and is ranked ahead of a BCS conference team.
Currently, writer Bruce Feldman of espn.com has both TCU and Boise State making BCS bowls. Suppose, though, there’s a scenario in which all three teams go undefeated. Who goes BCS bowling then? It is doubtful all three teams would make it, so I would have to give the edge to TCU and Houston, which would have the better overall resumes. Last year, both Utah and Boise State went undefeated, but Boise State was denied an at-large berth — so simply going undefeated will not suffice.
I am going to go out on a limb though and say that both Boise State and Houston make BCS bowls. I think TCU will trip up somewhere in its schedule. Boise State is making a routine out of securing BCS bowls, so it is getting hard to root for the Broncos. Houston, however, is a team I can get behind.
The fun thing about this is that the margin for error is so low for these teams because one loss most likely knocks them out of BCS contention. Each successive week they remain undefeated, the pressure will build and the nation will be watching to see which team falls first. Enjoy, everyone.