Until now, any prediction of Academy Awards winners was pure speculation. But this past weekend, the Producers Guild of America and the Screen Actors Guild handed out their awards. These ceremonies are often great predictors of Oscar recipients, largely due to membership overlap in the voting bodies and, in the PGA’s case, the use of preferential voting which matches what the Academy uses. Here is the rundown of the new frontrunners in the Best Picture and Acting categories.
“Birdman” or (The Official Best Picture Frontrunner)
With wins at the PGA and the SAG Awards, show business dark comedy “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” is now the frontrunner to win Best Picture. Of the 26 movies to win the PGA award in its previous 25 years of existence, 18 have gone on to win Best Picture — a 69 percent success rate (taking into account the tying win given to “Gravity” last year before the film lost at the Oscars). The last seven to win Best Picture also won the PGA award.
This year’s PGA list has a seven-movie overlap with the Oscars’ Best Picture list, though PGA-no-show “Selma” was favored over “Foxcatcher,” “Gone Girl” and “Nightcrawler.” Movies about show business have found success at the Oscars in the past, most recently with 2012 winner “The Artist” and 2013 winner “Argo,” and it looks like that will repeat this year. SAG Best Cast victories are not a good Best Picture precursor, since the award often favors the type of big, all-star cast that “Birdman” has.
Best Picture frontrunner status also raises the prospects for “Birdman” in categories like Best Screenplay, Best Director and Best Actor, since the big winner always takes home a few top awards. “Boyhood,” with its incredible production story and acclaim, or smash hit “American Sniper” may still challenge “Birdman” for the Oscar, but other contenders like “The Imitation Game” or “The Grand Budapest Hotel” are surely out of the game. As of now, “Birdman” is the one to beat.
SAG Awards point to acting frontrunners
The Screen Actors Guild Awards offers strong indicators of who is likely to take home the Oscar gold for their performances. Based on Sunday’s results, Julianne Moore should win for her performance as a woman experiencing Alzheimer's in “Still Alice.” J.K. Simmons should win Best Supporting Actor for his role as a psychotic jazz conservatory conductor in “Whiplash.” Patricia Arquette should also repeat for her part as Mason’s struggling single-mother in “Boyhood.”
The one questionable forecast was Eddie Redmayne’s win for playing Stephen Hawking in “The Theory of Everything.” It is very hard to imagine “Birdman” winning Best Picture without star Michael Keaton also winning for his sublime portrayal of a washed-up superhero actor attempting a serious comeback on the stage, a performance that is the core of “Birdman.” Expect Keaton’s name to be called on Oscar night, especially if “Birdman” has good coattails and “Boyhood” director Richard Linklater takes home the Directors Guild Award Feb. 7.
All else equal though, Redmayne is in good shape for Oscar night, since Best Actor at the Oscars and Best Actor at the SAG have matched 16 out of 20 times, including the last 10 years in a row. The last time they differed was when Johnny Depp won the SAG for playing Captain Jack Sparrow in the first “Pirates of the Caribbean” movie, while Sean Penn took home the Oscar for his role in Clint Eastwood’s “Mystic River.”
Other SAG categories have split much more recently, like Supporting Actor in 2012 and Actress in 2011. Also look out for Bradley Cooper’s transformative performance as Chris Kyle in “American Sniper.” His lack of a SAG nomination should not work against him since the movie’s late release likely hurt its SAG nomination chances. The movie’s enormous financial success could benefit it in a top category, with Best Actor the most likely place for it to win beyond technical categories.
Best Animated up in the air
The PGA gave its Best Animated Feature Award to the Academy-snubbed “The LEGO Movie,” so the decision obviously doesn’t point toward who will win the Oscar. Here is a toast to the movie’s last moment in the awards spotlight, before it is reduced to the cruel fate being no more than the highest-grossing and most popular animated movie of 2014.
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