The push for redistricting reform has come to a close for the 2017 session of the Virginia General Assembly. Three Republican sponsored reform bills, each of which passed through the Senate with bipartisan support, were killed in the House Elections Subcommittee this past Tuesday when the seven member committee voted — on party lines — to pass by the bill indefinitely. The fault lies with particular Republicans in the House and the Senate, who have taken an aggressive anti-reform stance in order to secure their own seats and the seats of other party members in the face of changing demographic and political landscapes in the Commonwealth.
State Sen. Creigh Deeds (D-Bath) chalks up the anti-reform effort to a desire for power and influence when he says: “It doesn’t pass the House because power, once achieved, is difficult to give up. People in power have to know that if the districts are drawn the way that doesn’t allow the incumbents to protect themselves or protect their party, change could occur and that change could mean the end of their power.”
Change could cost Republicans their seats, especially as the demographics of Virginia change. The Richmond Times Dispatch notes that “the population shift, most notably in Northern Virginia, is changing the state’s educational, political and social landscape.” Immigrants, particularly Hispanics, tend to vote for Democrats, a troubling trend for Republicans clinging to their seats as the demographics of their constituencies change. A University study of 2010 census data found that one in nine Virginians were born outside the U.S.; until 1970, only one in 100 Virginians were born outside the country. Most commonly, these immigrants come from El Salvador, India, Mexico, the Philippines and Korea. Republicans have not won a statewide election since 2009, even though Barack Obama’s 2008 election was the first time Virginia voted for a Democratic president since 1964.
Though Republicans are typically responsible for stalling efforts for redistricting reform in Virginia, Republicans outside the House have proven their commitment to fairly drawn districts — or at least have made the effort to look like they have.
State Sen. Jill Vogel (R-Winchester), the Republican who co-sponsored one of the bills and a candidate for lieutenant governor, notes the injustice of the current system: “Once folks truly start to appreciate that perhaps it isn’t them who are selecting their legislators but in fact the legislators who are selecting them, that actually really makes people stop and take a second look.” Republican lawyer and Tidewater Regional co-chairman of OneVirginia2021, Chuck McPhillips, defines gerrymandering as “rigging the outcome of an election before the very first vote is cast. Rather than stuffing the ballot box, incumbents are stuffing their districts.”
The bills killed in the House subcommittee received strong bipartisan support in the Senate. Vogel’s bill, SJ 290, passed 31-9 among her fellow senators. Deeds, however, has expressed doubt that this apparent bipartisan dedication to reform is not as laudable as it might initially appear: “For the Senate, it’s easy to vote for it, because whether you’re for it or against it, you know it’s going to die when it gets to the House.”
Deeds also says that in “the Senate, it’s easy to vote for [redistricting reform bills], because whether you’re for it or against it, you know it’s going to die when it gets to the House.” If Deeds is right, then even Vogel, who went so far as to co-sponsor a pro-reform bill, likely knew that the bill would never pass through the House. The move paints her as bipartisan and for-the-people, a strategic play for the Senator as she campaigns for the 2017 lieutenant governor election.
For now, it appears that redistricting reform has been effectively stalled in the Commonwealth. Like with marijuana legalization and the restoration of voting rights for felons, the House of Delegates has proven its commitment to partisanship, petulance, and a deep regard for the inability to compromise. However, as the demographics of the Commonwealth continue to change, Republicans may find that even the injustice of purposefully partisan districts is not enough to keep them in power.
Jordan Arnold is an Opinion columnist for The Cavalier Daily. She can be reached at opinion@cavalierdaily.com.
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