A new poll shows former Fifth Congressional District representative Tom Perriello ahead of Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam with a narrow lead of five percentage points in the Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary. Perriello leads among Democrat or Democrat-leaning voters with 25 percent of voters compared to Northam’s 20 percent, according to the Quinnipiac University Poll released on Tuesday.
Peter A. Brown, the assistant director to Quinnipiac University Poll, spoke about the tight Democratic primaries in the Quinnipiac release.
"Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam originally had been expected to coast to the nomination, but former Congressman Tom Perriello is inching ahead," Brown said.
The poll was conducted from April 6 to April 10, days after Sen. Bernie Sanders endorsed Tom Perriello.
Northam campaign Press Secretary Ofirah Yheskel said in a statement to The Cavalier Daily that they are confident in their chances due to internal polling.
“[Northam] submitted more than 30,000 signatures to get on the ballot compared to Perriello's 20,000, and he's received over 12,000 individual contributions with 91 percent coming in under $100,” Yheskel wrote. “That's real grassroots energy, and it shows the momentum is with Ralph Northam in this primary.”
The Perriello campaign did not return a request for comment.
The poll shows the Republican primary to have a clearer potential candidate, with former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie ahead of the two other Republican primary candidates, Prince William County Board of Supervisors Chairman Corey Stewart and State Sen. Frank Wagner (R-Virginia Beach). Among Republican or Republican-leaning voters, Gillespie carries 28 percent, Stewart took 12 percent and Wagner drew 7 percent.
Geoffrey Skelley, associate editor for Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, said the only thing for certain in the gubernatorial race is Gillespie is currently leading the Republican primary.
“The only thing I can say with much certainty is that Ed Gillespie is winning the Republican primary at the moment,” Skelley said. “The rest of it is just pretty much in the air.”
The Quinnipiac University Poll also provided data for hypothetical match-ups between Democrat and Republican candidates in the general election. Tom Perriello and Ralph Northam both hold strong leads over Ed Gillespie.
Perriello leads Gillespie 46 to 33 percent, whereas Northam is leading Gillespie 44 to 33 percent.
Skelley said he doesn’t believe the race will be this easily won by a Democratic candidate. Skelley cited Trump’s low approval rating in Virginia, which currently sits at 36 percent approval and 57 percent disapproval, as potentially giving Democrats this early advantage.
“[Trump’s] approval ratings have been in the high 30s or low 40s in Virginia and [are] giving Democrats a bit of a boost,” Skelley said. “I can potentially see a generic Democrat being in a favorable position to win in November. With that being said, it is hard for me to see a double-digit lead.”
Quinnipiac also conducted early polling for the 2018 senatorial race. U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine (D) still remains very popular after losing in November as the vice presidential candidate for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
While no Republicans have officially announced a bid for the 2018 Senate race, Laura Ingraham, a conservative talk host, and Carly Fiorina, a former CEO of Hewlett-Packard and a competitor in the 2016 Republican presidential primary, have announced interest. This poll shows Kaine having an early lead over both Fiorina and Ingraham by over 20 percentage points.
“I would certainly start Kaine off as a favorite against either of those candidates,” Skelley said. “I think Tim Kaine would be quite pleased to face either of those candidates versus someone like Barbara Comstock, who has won on turf that is not as friendly to Republicans.”
Each party’s gubernatorial primaries will be held on June 13 and the general election will take place Nov. 7.
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