The results of the first round of the French presidential elections are in, and despite significant fluctuations in the polling in the few weeks leading up to the vote, they are along the lines most expected. Emmanuel Macron, the centrist, cosmopolitan independent, and Marine Le Pen, the hard-right, nationalist firebrand of the National Front, came out on top. Their success ushers in a campaign between two diametrically opposed visions for the French Republic, the West and the world ahead of the second round of voting on May 7. Le Pen is likely to lose by a large margin, and the hope is that the magnitude of her defeat will reverberate internationally, signaling that the election of President Donald Trump was the high-water mark of a populist movement in retreat. There is much evidence to corroborate that optimism. More likely than not, however, we are in the eye of a storm whose most devastating effects are yet to come.
First, it is worth going through all of the positive signs of populist retrenchment. In the United States, the Trump presidency began with the largest single protest event in American history — the Women’s March in Washington, D.C. Its sheer size attested to the enthusiasm of the growing Trump resistance movement. Even here at the University, the University Democrats, the Minority Rights Coalition and other activist organizations have put on well-attended acts of solidarity and protest in the wake of the Trump administration’s executive orders.
The shoots of hope springing forth across the country have already bloomed into auspicious near-political victories for Democrats. In deep-red Kansas’s fourth congressional district, where a special election was held on April 11 to replace CIA director Mike Pompeo, Democrat James Thompson lost to Republican Ron Estes by a seven-point margin. In November 2016, Pompeo beat his Democratic opponent by 31 points. In Georgia’s sixth congressional district, where Republicans are used to winning by extensive double digit margins, Democrat Jon Ossoff was a little under two points shy of winning a majority of the vote and avoiding a runoff. Democrats saw similarly surprising gains in 2005, which led into their recapturing the House of Representatives in 2006.
After its first few polarizing months, the Trump administration seems to be dialing down its explosive, nationalist rhetoric and policy priorities in favor of a more traditional agenda. The last few weeks in American foreign policy have been remarkable for their continuity with previous administrations. The Trump administration ratcheted down its invective toward China, toughened up on Russia, used the military to enforce an international norm and has signaled to American allies that the United States will continue to uphold its commitments. President Trump even went so far as to declare that NATO is “not obsolete,” in reference to comments he made last year saying precisely the opposite. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Washington’s strong web of institutions and checks are molding the president’s agenda to fit their prerogatives.
Finally, the populist surge in Europe seems to have equally abated. The recent Dutch elections have demonstrated that far-right populist parties have not been able to capitalize on the spirit of President Trump’s victory last year. The first round of the French presidential election was marred by a terrorist attack on the Champs-Elysées, which killed a police officer and wounded two others. Yet, the French people did not respond by providing Marine Le Pen with a boost. The painstaking state of the United Kingdom’s Brexit negotiations is reminding the world on a near-daily basis how onerous it can be to actually achieve some of these populist fantasies.
Despite all of these signals that the centrifugal forces of our time are slowing and that liberal democratic institutions are regaining their footing, there are deeper concerns that the West and the rest of the world will have to face. Turkey’s recent referendum providing President Recep Erdogan with a near-dictatorial stranglehold on his country come 2019 has provided a time of death for Turkish democracy. Central and Eastern Europe remain in the clutches of far-right populist governments set on wreaking havoc within the European Union and clamping down on freedoms at home. Russia and China remain revisionist powers determined to establish their respective regional hegemonies and to overturn key elements of the U.S.-led international order. On an economic and social level, the world is on the cusp of a digital revolution which will have deep-seated implications for the labor market beyond what we have already seen. That means more precarity, more sluggish growth and, in turn, more populism, extremism and yearning for strongmen figures.
The evolving state of compromise between the forces of nationalism and continuity in the Trump administration is possibly reflective of a new normal rather than a momentary aberration. If that is the case, then the West and the rest of the world must be prepared to slog through an indeterminate number of years in this rough political climate.
Olivier Weiss is an Opinion columnist for the Cavalier Daily. He may be reached at opinion@cavalierdaily.com.
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