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Sabato revamps Crystal Ball Web site

Politics Prof. Larry J. Sabato relaunched a new and improved version of his Crystal Ball Web site this week.

The University's Center for Politics originally launched Sabato's Crystal Ball in the fall of 2002.

Rakesh Gopalan, associate director of communications at the Center, said after the success of the first year the Center decided to continue to improve and expand the Web site.

"It's more interactive and user-friendly than before," Gopalan said. "But mainly it has a lot more content."

The Web site now features revamped graphics, in-depth biographies and analysis on each potential presidential candidate.

Nathan Royster, vice chairman for events for the College Republicans, said that he thought that several aspects of the site had improved.

"I thought it was a pretty disappointing Web site before," Royster said. "But now [Sabato] has a pretty good introduction on what to look for in the presidential election."

The Crystal Ball emphasizes that three factors are the key indicators in predicting elections: the economy, war or peace and scandals.

When asked if the recent State of the Union and subsequent political debate altered any of his forecasts, Sabato said that it made no impact whatsoever.

"A smile is just a smile and a speech is just a speech," Sabato said. "It doesn't change anything fundamental about our predictions."

Ian Amelkin, the recently-reelected president of the University Democrats, expressed his appreciation to Sabato and the Center for the more comprehensive look at elections.

"It's helpful that it shows which congressional seats are up because University students graduating in the next few years will be able to see where they might be able to get a job on a campaign," Amelkin said.

Sabato also pointed out that, unlike most other political analysis Web sites, the Crystal Ball is free.

The Web site "is broader in scope but has the same mission -- civic education," Sabato said.

Bob Holsworth, director for the Center of Public Policy at Virginia Commonwealth University, said he always is pleased to see Sabato make the early predictions.

"It's just what makes Larry such an interesting political commentator," Holsworth said. "He's happy to go where others fear to tread."

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