With no clear frontrunner poised to contest President George W. Bush in the 2004 presidential election, analysts say the Democratic Party might be looking to the South.
On his Crystal Ball election prediction Web site, Politics Prof. Larry J. Sabato enumerates 14 potential candidates, half of whom hail from the Democratic stronghold of the Northeast.
"Every successful Democratic ticket of the 20th century, except for the FDR/Henry Wallace combination of 1940, had a Southerner or a resident of a border state on it," Sabato said on his Web site. "That, in itself, is a vague danger sign for Democratic hopes in 2004."
The Democrats' incentive to select at least one Southern candidate capable of carrying his or her state in 2004 led Sabato to name Virginia Gov. Mark R. Warner as a possible "dark horse" vice-presidential nominee.
A comparatively young politician with a personal fortune of near $200 million, the former northern Virginia businessman was elected Governor in 2001.
"I don't rate [Warner] that highly," Sabato said. "Simply because Virginia is very conservative, very Republican, and would be inclined to vote for Bush even with someone from the state on the ballot."
Warner spokesperson Ellen Qualls rejected the idea that Warner would cut short his four-year term as governor in order to run for vice-president in 2004.
"He has more than enough to say grace over here in Richmond," Qualls said. "It's just not something he's talking about or thinking about."
In response to a Newport News Daily Press report that Warner recently received phone calls from leading Democratic presidential candidates, Qualls attributed the communications to a bill he signed in late March moving the Virginia presidential primary to Feb. 10.
"The fact is, we're so far away and things could change so much," said Joshua Scott, an analyst at the University Center for Politics. "How many people in America even know who Mark Warner is at this point?"
However, Scott also shed light on Warner's political appeal.
"He's young, youthful, family," Scott said. "A lot of politics is the packaging."
Sabato suggested Warner might choose to run for senate when Virginia Sen. George Allen's term expires in 2006, or vie for Sen. John Warner's seat if he retires in 2008.
"He's got one four-year term as a governor," Sabato said. Being nominated as the Democratic vice-president candidate "is nothing more than a long shot."
Though unlikely, Scott emphasized the possible resentment that could ensue if Warner was offered a bid and decided not to serve out his term as governor.
"It would be very hard to turn down an offer to be a vice-presidential running mate," he said.
However, both Scott and Sabato said they expect to see more of Warner in the coming years.
"He's already run for senator once and he's still very much a young politician," Scott said. "I wouldn't be surprised at all if Gov. Warner has aspirations beyond the Governor's Mansion."
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