As soon as third-year Commerce student Scott Howard heard that 1,000 people faced multi-million dollar lawsuits for sharing music online, he shut off his Kazaa service.
"I don't have enough money to pay $250,000 per song," Howard said.
His action illustrates a global trend: fewer users logging on to peer-to-peer networks in the wake of the Recording Industry Association of America's June 26 announcement that it planned to file lawsuits against individuals distributing copyrighted music.
Nielson Net Ratings reported a 15 percent decline in traffic on Kazaa and Morpheus in the week immediately after RIAA announced its pursuit of individual users.
Traffic on the largest service, Kazaa, continued to decline for the next seven weeks, from a peak of seven million unique users per week to below five million. The number now remains stable around five million, according to Nielson Net Ratings Senior Analyst Greg Bloom.
"Usage of Kazaa is not anywhere near its all-time high," Bloom said. "However, threats from the record industry are not dealing a knockout blow to alternative file sharing right now."
Computer Science Prof. Alfred Weaver argued that legal actions by the RIAA will eventually make a significant impact on the operation of peer-to-peer networks like Kazaa.
"I think it's an effective ploy and I think it will have the intended result," Weaver said. "It will drastically reduce illegal file-sharing."
The firm that distributes Kazaa, Sharman Networks Limited, told the San Francisco Chronicle the Nielson report represented only a normal lull in traffic that occurs annually during the summer.
Bloom disagreed, pointing to the drastic drop in numbers immediately after RIAA began issuing subpoenas and the continual decline over seven weeks.
"It's more than just saying there's a seasonal effect," Bloom said.
RIAA is wary of interpreting reduced traffic on peer-to-peer networks as the intended result of its legal action, RIAA spokesperson Jonathan Lamy said.
"How we view the success of this effort is not necessarily in day-to-day sharing on file sharing networks," Lamy said. "We view the ultimate success to be if music fans migrate to legitimate services and if these services grow and thrive."
Many University students continue to use peer-to-peer networks, despite the threat of RIAA lawsuits.
"I haven't changed anything, but I plan to be more covert," said second-year College student Tim Lalonde. "I don't think anyone's going to stop."
Although Howard did stop using Kazaa, it was only to avoid a lawsuit, he said.
"Since it's legal to record music off the radio, I think it should be the same online, as long as it's for your personal use," he said. "Most of stars' money comes from concerts -- it's free publicity for them too."
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