"There still is a tremendous amount of unpredictability in this race."
This was he message presented to the audience in Newcomb Hall last night by Rhodes Cook, author of "The Presidential Nominating Process, a Place for Us?"
Cook, the featured speaker at a discussion on the presidential primary system hosted by the University Center for Politics, explained how the circumstances in this election's primary race are rare.
Cook said the leading fundraiser for the primary election has won every race since 1984. If this holds true for 2004, it would place former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean as the eventual Democratic presidential nominee.
However, Cook also explained that throughout history, cases where a single candidate wins both the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries have shown that candidate will go on to win the nomination. This method of prediction would place Massachusetts Senator John Kerry as the Democratic presidential nominee.
"We don't really know where the whole darned thing is going to go," Cook said.
Despite this volatility, Cook maintains that "states can fall like dominoes" quickly in favor of a candidate.
"States suspend independent judgment and vote like lemmings based on how the last state voted," Cook said.
Politics Prof. Larry J. Sabato said the early primary election results will not have a great effect on the primary election voting outcome in Virginia Feb 10.
"No one is going to remember New Hampshire when we vote in Virginia," Sabato said.
However, Sabato maintained that Kerry's early victories are extremely damaging to the other candidates' campaigns, especially in the media.
"John Kerry is the souped-up metro liner on the fast track to the nomination," Sabato said. "The others are 19th-century steam locomotives trying to derail him. Is it possible they blow up the train? Yes. But it's highly unlikely."
In addition to an analysis of the current primary season, Cook criticized the current state of the primary election system.
"The nominating process can be an excursion into 'Alice in Wonderland,'" Cook said. "The nominating process is a world of its own."
Cook criticized both major political parties for not mobilizing more voters for the presidential primary campaigns -- citing that only 35 million voters turn out for the primaries as compared to 100 million for the general election.
"We are in an era of 'one person, one vote,'" Cook said. "In our system the two major parties hold a monopoly. It is their responsibility to get as many voters a voice as possible."
Cook also criticized the media's political coverage.
"We are in a period of the height of media influence in campaigns as a whole," Cook said, later comparing the media frenzy as "Chinese water torture" for the candidates.
Cook said that he was bothered by news commentators discounting candidates.
"Let the voters decide!" Cook said.
Cook also outlined plans for reforming the primary system, including a national primary election day, rotating regional primaries and the GOP "Delaware Plan," which would begin the process with states that have smaller populations and end with larger states.
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