Despite an ever-increasing high school graduation rate across the nation and in Virginia, the University does not plan to significantly expand its undergraduate population.
According to a report released yesterday by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, the number of high school graduates will rise by 17.7 percent in the Commonwealth over the next 14 years.
Nationwide, the graduating class of 2008-09 is projected at 3.2 million students, the most in the history of the United States. Within the next 14 years, the number of graduates is expected to increase by 10.4 percent.
The University anticipates a steady increase in applications as a result of an increased number of students graduating from high school and moving on to higher education, University Spokesperson Carol Wood said.
"The University of Virginia does not have a plan for a huge growth," Wood said. "We are currently in a slow-growth mode -- we will probably expand 100 students a year for the next eight to 10 years. One of the more attractive facets of the University is an intimate undergraduate experience."
While the University intends to restrict its growth, other colleges and universities in the Commonwealth plan to expand, Wood said.
"Other universities' goals are to grow their undergraduate population," Wood said.
The report attributes the anticipated increase in high school graduates to the "baby boomlet," a phenomenon that occurred in the 1990s when baby boomers from the 1950s had children. Between 1990 and 2000, the country's population grew 13.2 percent. The South had the second largest growth in the nation, with an increase in population of 17.3 percent, resulting in a projected 18.7 percent increase of high school graduates within the region, according to the report.
The commission that prepared the report is a 15-state organization that issues projections every four or five years to assist colleges and universities in preparing for future admissions. The estimates are primarily based on migration patterns, birth rates and school enrollment.
"Our mission is to focus on higher education access, especially populations that have not traditionally entered higher education as often as white kids," WICHE Communications Associate Anne Finnigan said.
This year, the commission also took into account family income of projected future graduates for the first time. The study found that, on average, Virginia public high school graduates will be from higher-income families in the future and that all income levels will see a significant increase in graduation. However, the majority of the graduates, 36.9 percent, will remain in the higher-income bracket.
The study shows a dramatic shift in the racial and ethnic make-up of its high school graduates. The minority population is projected to shift from 27 percent of graduates in the early 1990s to almost 50 percent by 2014.
The number of Hispanic high school graduates is projected to nearly quadruple from 2002 to 2014.
The commission co-published the report, titled "Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State, Income, and Race/Ethnicity, 1988 to 2018," with the College Board and ACT.
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