Does anyone realize that college basketball started? And that the nation's 10th-best team, Arizona, is coming to Charlottesville on Sunday to give the Cavaliers their toughest November game under Pete Gillen.
That, of course, isn't saying much, considering last year's slate consisted of Mount St. Mary's, Virginia Tech and High Point. But Arizona provides a legitimate test, something the Cavs are unaccustomed to before the New Year.
My final season here begins with mixed emotions. I came to Charlottesville when Virginia was a basketball school. I camped out for a week in 2002 for the fateful Maryland game, the one where then-No. 8 Virginia blew a nine-point lead with 3:22 left against the third-ranked Terps. It started the freefall in which Virginia lost 10 of their last 14, a freefall that has yet to stop.
The good news is that this will be the best team that Gillen has produced in four years. This team has all of the necessary pieces to earn an NCAA bid.
Freshman Sean Singletary will be an immediate star, challenging for ACC Rookie of the Year honors while giving Gillen the point guard he has lacked since God Shammgod at Providence. Singletary is a natural leader á la Chris Paul, a consummate playmaker who just wants the ball in his hands. He instantly solves the point guard question that has riddled Gillen.
Sophomore J.R. Reynolds finally gives Virginia someone who can create his own shot. Reynolds is deadly from beyond the arc, plays aggressive defense and will emerge as an All-ACC caliber player this season. Senior Devin Smith averaged 11.6 points while never practicing last year because of a nagging back injury; he's finally healthy, and the ACC will see what that means.
Inside, Jason Clark will have a full season this year, and no one does the dirty things -- rebound, block shots, take charges and hustle -- better than he does. Elton Brown seems to have turned another corner and vows to join Clark in doing dirty work, but Brown also has the best post moves in the ACC when his head is in the game and not on the nightly Snickers he treats himself to.
The bench stretches deep too, with athletic wings Gary Forbes and Adrian Joseph (think Adam Hall with a shot) providing instant energy on both ends of the floor. T.J. Bannister is a serviceable floor general and Donte Minter can score inside.
So, you ask, what is holding back the Cavaliers? Well, there are the usual internal holes and a killer ACC slate.
First, Virginia has to overcome the defensive deficiencies that plagued the team over the last two years when they finished eighth and ninth in scoring defense. The Rod Jensen experiment may be behind Gillen, but his team must demonstrate the ability to stop someone before anyone talks of success.
I think they should be better this year. Todd Billet was a great leader who gave everything he had on both ends of the floor, but his limited athletic ability hampered him defensively.
The Cavs plan to use more, high-pressure defense, as they should with a healthy Smith and lightning-quick Singletary.
With a trio of athletic wings and more minutes for Clark, this team certainly can play defense. Will they?
Second, rebounding, in which the Cavs ranked ninth on the defensive glass last season. It starts with Brown, a full season of Clark and Smith. Rebounding is all about desire, but that's always a Pandora's Box inside of University Hall. Who knows if Brown will back up his words?
Third, free throws. The Cavs have finished eighth and seventh in the ACC in the last two years. No signs of improvement, as Virginia went just 20 of 36 from the line last week.
Fourth, home court advantage this year will be mitigated by the SHOTS system, which requires students to request tickets online. In addition to fewer students that will come, the atmosphere will be hurt by the general public being allowed to sit in the lower bowl. This will take the students almost entirely out of the game with families sitting down around them five rows from the court. A student ID should be required to get into the lower bowl of the student section. That's it.
On top of those challenges, the ACC this year will be the best conference college basketball has ever seen. Six ACC teams start the season in the top 19. Three are in the top four, with Duke and Maryland not among them. It should make for quite an ACC season, but will be extremely tough going.
One would figure that the Cavs would need eight ACC wins. Quick math reveals four likely wins (two games against Virginia Tech, Miami and Clemson) and six likely losses (games at Duke, Georgia Tech, UNC, Wake, N.C. State and Maryland). That means that Virginia needs to get four wins somehow between a home-and-home with FSU and home bouts with UNC, Wake, N.C. State and Maryland. At the least, a bid requires two home wins over top-20 teams and two more road wins. Gillen, however, is 2-14 in road games the last two years and is 10-38 at Virginia.
Gillen may have the luck of the Irish, and a tourney bid is certainly possible, but my time here has taught me that I should be in no rush to buy a pair of dancing shoes.
Then again, I would love nothing more than for Gillen to prove me wrong. I've been saving up moves for four years.
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