During preseason, Virginia baseball coach Brian O'Connor anticipated that, with such a young team this year, he would have to wait until around game 35 or 40 to tell what this team can really achieve.
After Virginia lost games 31 to 33 over the weekend to Florida State, and game 30 to Towson before that, I don't know about O'Connor, but I remain clueless. And, unless two midweek games against Longwood and Liberty and a three-game series against the fifth-place team in the ACC Atlantic Division in Maryland this weekend show Virginia's true colors, I doubt I will be able to glean much more about this group by game 38, either.
Coming into the season, this was supposed to be the scoop: Virginia wins on Fridays thanks to one of the nation's top returning starting pitchers in junior Jacob Thompson. The other two starting pitching slots were supposed to bring the questions, as senior Pat McAnaney and junior Andrew Carraway attempt to translate brilliant bullpen work in 2007 into success as starters. A talented, all-freshman starting outfield has potential to contribute, but certainly to start the season it seemed logical that the veteran infield of juniors David Adams, Greg Miclat and Jeremy Farrell would carry the bulk of the offensive load. The freshman class also would provide some padding to a Virginia bullpen depleted after moving Carraway and McAnaney to starting roles and senior Michael Schwimer to closer. The most dependable reliever left was supposed to be senior Jake Rule, last season's team leader in appearances (29) , who boasted a 2.63 ERA.
Those tricky baseball players, though, seem to have it all mixed up. Thompson has a 3.59 ERA in seven starts and was knocked around for six runs in two of them, both resulting in losses; Saturday starter McAnaney has been the stud, with a 1.61 ERA in his seven starts. Though Adams, Miclat and Farrell are all providing expected offensive output, freshman Dan Grovatt's .398 batting average leads all the regulars, and his plate savvy has earned him the cleanup spot in the batting order. And, while the young bullpen's inconsistency was expected, Rule has been the most unreliable, sporting a team-worst 10.54 ERA.
Confused yet? I haven't even gotten into the Cavaliers' record. First they lose two of three games in each of their first two ACC series to North Carolina State and Duke; this is understandable, as they were road series against underrated schools. Virginia then squeezes by Stony Brook in a two-game midweek series 3-0 in the first game and 6-4 in the second game. Yes, it was a little nerve-wracking but maybe also the wake-up call this team needed -- and the team then rocks Boston College in a three-game sweep and wins a hard-fought home game against VCU.
After that everything goes haywire. The day after the VCU win, George Washington comes to Charlottesville and trounces Virginia 17-5 -- a loss in which each of the four pitchers who appear for Virginia allow at least three runs. Then, the Cavs seemingly regain their footing in a sweep against Virginia Tech -- albeit against the now 11-20 Hokies -- but Virginia allowed a mere four runs to an underrated Tech offense. The pitching goes awry again in a two-game series against the now 14-16 Towson squad, as Virginia holds on in the first game 9-8 and drops the second 6-7.
And that brings us back to this past weekend's sweep at the hands of No. 2 Florida State, where Virginia lost not one, but two games to the Seminoles by a score of 3-2 in walk-off fashion, with one out in the 10th inning. No joke. Previously No. 14 in the Baseball America Top 25 Rankings, Virginia dropped out of that top 25 when the new rankings came out Monday.
But are the Cavaliers a top-25 team? Well, sometimes. But when Thompson leaves the ball up in the strike zone on a Friday night or when Rule gets pounded for four runs in an inning, then no.
Granted, it's tougher to be consistent this year with the new condensed schedule. Virginia has seven weeks this season when it plays two non-conference games midweek as opposed to two such weeks last year, and nobody's got the kind of depth to send out a lights-out starter in the fifth game in five days.
It's not the guys at the bottom of the depth chart who worry me as much, however, as those at the top, like Thompson and Rule. These two were measures of consistency last season, particularly Thompson, whose 1.50 ERA reflected the fact that he was virtually unhittable all year. Everyone knows he's got the stuff of a future pro, but right now, it's just not there.
The Cavs were pretty upset last year when they lost in the NCAA Regional for the fourth straight year. The fact that the two losses that ended last year's postseason run came to eventual College World Series winner Oregon State was just another twist of the knife.
Unless the big dogs on the mound bring their stuff, however, this year just might be number five.
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