Red. It’s the color that Virginia has voted in every U.S. presidential election since 1968. Now, though, as the current presidential race draws closer and closer, some politicos are wondering if this historically Republican state is going to vote Blue come November.
“Since 1952, there have been 14 presidential elections [and] in 13 of those, the state has voted Republican,” said Cordel Faulk, director of communications at the Miller Center of Public Affairs. “From the 1968 election on, the state has voted Republican.”
Faulk explained that in the early 20th century, despite the commonwealth’s typically conservative nature, Virginia’s voting history tended to favor Democratic presidential candidates. That all changed, however, when the Democratic party began to slowly change in the 1940s, he noted.
“Things began to change a bit in the ‘40s when President Truman started to reach out to black voters, and by ‘52 Virginia Senator Harry Byrd [began to tell Virginia voters] not to vote for the Democratic [candidate],” Faulk said.
Faulk added, though, that the real shift took place in the 1960s, when, in the 1968 presidential race, Virginia started its Red voting trend by voting for Nixon.
It was “in the 1960s with the Voting Rights Act when the parties really realigned in the state,” Faulk said.
Despite the clear Republican voting trends during the past 50 years, however, early polling numbers in the commonwealth for the current presidential election have remained close, with the Republican Party and the Democratic Party engaged in a close battle. The lack of a clear advantage in polls has caused some speculation as to whether the Republican voting trend will continue, Faulk said.
In “the election in Virginia right [now], the polls have it very close, and this is as close as it’s been in a really long time,” Faulk said. “But it’s gonna be a pretty rough ride for Obama.”
Faulk said Obama could take the commonwealth, but the scenario is not necessarily very likely.
“He’s going to have to bank on a large vote from Northern Virginia,” Faulk said. “And he needs a very, very big black turnout in the state.”
University Democrats President Sarah Buckley, however, said she believes that 2008 will definitely be the year that Virginia will vote for the Democratic candidate.
“Virginia will absolutely be going in the Democrats’ column,” Buckley said.
Buckley note that in conjunction with other factors, the fact that identification with the Democratic Party has increased in the commonwealth will help swing Virginia Blue in November.
Buckley said Virginia’s past voting history will be more motivator than challenge. Though it will be difficult to overcome the Red history, that history alone will cause further action on the part of Democratic supporters, she said.
“It’s ... something we want to overcome,” Buckley said. It’s “motivation to get out and campaign and get students to vote. The student vote is something that is going to make a huge difference [in the 2008 election], and we’ve been working with everybody to make that happen.”
College Republicans Chairman Savanna Rutherford said, however, she thinks the outcome will be a Republican vote from Virginia, despite the close poll numbers and recent shifts in Virginia voting.
“I think that Virgina will go for McCain despite what has been an apparent shift,” Rutherford said. “I think that there have been other factors that have led to the shift in the past, and that as far as the two candidates are concerned, McCain fits the ideological leanings of Virginia.”
Faulk said he believes Obama’s biggest hurdle would be overcoming the voting trend of Virginia’s moderate to conservative citizens.
“Prior to Palin going on to the ticket, [Virginia] conservatives were not necessarily happy with McCain, and they may not have [shown] up to the polls,” Faulk said. “Now they are excited, and it may hurt Obama’s chances to win the state in the end.”
One thing, though, is for certain: Come November, history will be made as Virginia contributes to the selection of the 44th president of the United States.
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