Best Actor
With the exception of Richard Jenkins’ The Visitor, I’ve seen every film the Best Actor nominees have starred in — and all of these men are incredibly worthy of the award. In their portrayal of controversial American politicians Harvey Milk and Richard Nixon, both Sean Penn (Milk) and Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon) are spot-on. And I think Brad Pitt’s invigorating, touching performance in the epic The Curious Case of Benjamin Button has been underrated. But Mickey Rourke’s turn as Randy “The Ram” Robinson in The Wrestler stands heads above the rest. It’s not only as powerful and raw as the washed-up icon he portrays, but a rejuvenating career move for Rourke himself.
Who Should Win: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Who Will Win: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Best Supporting Actress
While I haven’t seen the performance that will probably bring home the gold in this category, I’ll counter by saying I’ve heard nothing but great things about Penélope Cruz’s fiery turn in Vicky Cristina Barcelona. Still, the Spanish actress faces some stiff competition. Costars Amy Adams and Viola Davis both were nominated for their roles in Doubt, while Taraji P. Henson also got some love from the Academy for her heartfelt performance as Benjamin’s mother in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. It’s a shame that former Oscar winner Marisa Tomei’s tenacious take as a down-on-her-luck stripper in The Wrestler hasn’t gotten too much attention so far, because it’s something to see.
Who Should Win: Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler or Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Who Will Win: Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. Frost/Nixon. Milk. The Reader. Slumdog Millionaire. You know them all well. There are a few more that I wish were nominated — The Dark Knight, Gran Torino, The Wrestler, Paul Blart: Mall Cop — but, alas, there are only five coveted spots the Academy chooses to fill. Luckily, my favorite film of 2009 received one. Slumdog Millionaire is one of the best movies I’ve seen in my lifetime — let alone the past 12 months — and is the clear favorite to win Oscar night. To quote my December review, it’s a “fierce tale of brotherhood, friendship, fate, loyalty and the hardships that are overcome in search of true love.” But there are a million more reasons why it deserves to have that precious statuette in its grasp.
What Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
What Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Director
The five movies nominated for Best Picture also were selected for Best Director. Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon) is the only candidate with a past Oscar win (for A Beautiful Mind, 2001), but the competition may be too strong this time for the former Richie Cunningham. Despite Danny Boyle’s (Slumdog Millionaire) Golden Globe win, my vote goes to David Fincher, because The Curious Case of Benjamin Button’s greatest strength was its direction, and it outshone the rest of the pool this year on that front.
Sollosi’s Pick: David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Best Actress
Melissa Leo is the critics’ indie darling, but Frozen River lacks the mainstream success required for large numbers of Academy votes. Angelina Jolie, Meryl Streep and Anne Hathaway are all huge names that delivered convincing performances in Changeling, Doubt and Rachel Getting Married, respectively. The smart pick, however, is Kate Winslet, who deserves a win based on the strength of her performances in both The Reader (her nominated role) and Revolutionary Road (which received no nominations, but probably should have).
Sollosi’s Pick: Kate Winslet, The Reader
Best Supporting Actor
It’s really too bad for Robert Downey, Jr., Josh Brolin, Philip Seymour Hoffman and Michael Shannon. As fine as their performances may have been (Downey Jr.’s for Tropic Thunder, not Iron Man), they don’t stand a chance. Heath Ledger swept the SAG awards and the Golden Globes (Dark Night costar Gary Oldman accepted the SAG award and Dark Night director Chirs Nolan accepted the Golden Globe) and will most likely earn the first posthumous Oscar since Peter Finch won — for Best Actor, not supporting — for Network (1976). You can bet the house on this one.
Sollosi’s Pick: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
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