It has been less than a month since Republican Bob McDonnell was elected the next governor of Virginia, yet the Charlottesville area already finds itself in the midst of another political competition that is being billed as - apologies if this sounds familiar - a referendum on the policies of President Barack Obama. Unlike this year's gubernatorial contest, however, which focused primarily on state issues such as transportation, the 2010 contest for Virginia's Fifth Congressional District between Democratic incumbent Tom Perriello and an as-yet-unknown Republican is likely to have national implications that could affect the future of both parties.
Of course, as former House speaker Tip O'Neill once famously said, "All politics is local," and the outcome of the battle for the Fifth District is likely to hinge on the area's unique electoral dynamics. The district, which stretches from north of Albemarle County all way to the state's border with North Carolina and reaches Martinsville in the southwest and Brunswick County in the southeast, is typically deep red except for the liberal enclave that is the City of Charlottesville. Prior to Perriello's election in 2008, the district was represented by one of the most conservative members of Congress, Virgil Goode, who consistently defeated his Democratic opponents by margins of 20 percent or more. Even with the massive influx of Democratic voters in Charlottesville - and, in particular, at the University - who were turned out by the Obama presidential campaign, Perriello only managed to defeat Goode by 727 votes, leaving Republicans hungry to retake the seat in the next election.
That hunger has only grown more intense over the past year as Perriello has infuriated conservatives by voting for Democratic initiatives such as the stimulus bill, cap and trade, and health care reform. The anger has recently begun to boil over, with conservative activists in Danville threatening to burn Perriello in effigy at an anti-health reform rally. The race is also garnering national attention from organizations such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which has already spent nearly $100,000 on television ads attacking Perriello. The result is that Perriello will likely face a fight for his political life against a Republican candidate drawing support from the party's national establishment as well as from disaffected conservative constituents who will be as passionate about voting Perriello out of office as liberals were about voting him in.
If the Democratic Party wishes to follow through on its bold vision of social change and governmental reform, however, it is imperative that Perriello be reelected in 2010. The Fifth District represents the type of area that Democrats need to control if they hope to build a strong coalition of electoral support, and Perriello represents the type of principled candidate that the party needs to succeed there. Perriello was the only freshman Democrat from a congressional district that favored John McCain to vote for the health care reform bill, proving that while he retains certain conservative instincts, he will not be an impediment to progress on important policy initiatives. A Perriello loss in 2010 would have a severe chilling effect on other Democrats who might be willing to take similar stands in defiance of the right-wing element of their constituency.
Recognizing that the Democratic Party needs to reelect Perriello is much easier than actually accomplishing that feat, however. After all, only three years ago Goode won the Fifth District by over 40,000 votes and the makeup of the district has changed little since then. The only hope for Democrats, therefore, is to incite the same excitement among Charlottesville liberals and young voters at the University that propelled Perriello and Obama to victory in 2008. The party cannot make the same mistake it did during the gubernatorial election by focusing on low-density areas, which are generally conservative, in the hopes of nabbing a few voters here and there. Instead, the party should pour its resources into turning out each and every liberal voter at the University and in the Charlottesville area. The success or failure of this strategy will determine whether the modern Democratic surge has been merely a transient electoral phenomenon or whether it represents a long-term shift that will guarantee support for the party's progressive proposals from traditionally conservative congressional districts such as Virginia's Fifth.
Matt Cameron is a first-year in the College.
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