For a process that is supposed to bring out the best and most creative aspects in you, applying to college saps your originality.
During those troublesome months in high school, I often browsed the Internet in the vague hope that I would be able to get an accurate prediction of my chances of getting into colleges. For some schools, such as the University, I hesitated to look at admissions statistics out of the fear that they would be too intimidating. We all feel the stress of applying to college, and for some, getting a decent prediction of their admissions chances could alleviate some anxiety and simplify the application process.
Looking online for reliable information concerning your chances of college admission is often a fruitless pursuit. Many of us may have encountered websites that profess to give accurate predictions yet require paid subscriptions in return. This environment is changing, however. A recent startup online platform — StatFuse.com — gathers admissions data directly from various colleges’ databases and uses an algorithm based on each institution’s admission statistics and application questions in order to give students an “accurate” prediction of their admissions chances.
The core distinction between StatFuse and similar sites is that this new startup pulls its data directly from universities’ databases, rather than relying on data submitted by the applicants themselves. This may have intriguing implications for our own university. As an out-of-state applicant, I considered the University to be a significant reach; indeed, even for in-state applicants, getting into the University is no easy task. I estimated I had a 30 percent chance at best. Yet this new program estimates that my chance of admission was 72 percent. Needless to say, I met this estimation with both shock and immediate skepticism.
Though this website touts its predictions as accurate, there is reason to be dubious of its estimates. According to its algorithms, New Jersey students with test scores and credentials similar to my own have a better chance of acceptance to the University than the College of New Jersey (65 percent) and have the exact same chance at getting into Rutgers University, the state university of New Jersey. Unless universities have started to reject overqualified candidates in large numbers, these statistics seem dangerously misleading.
Simple probability of acceptance is relatively easy to determine, yet reality dictates that many qualified candidates must be rejected. This unfortunate truth is a circumstance that algorithms have trouble processing. I caution users of sites such as StatFuse to view its predictions skeptically, even though the site may relieve prospective college students of some of the stress of the application process.
Admissions prediction programs distress me because of their potential for inaccuracy, which stems in part from the inherent inability to incorporate all factors behind admission into an algorithm. Moreover, they do not substantially change the way in which the college application process operates. The basic formula for being accepted to respected college has not fundamentally changed. Stellar academics, a high GPA, abundant extracurricular activities and high-percentile standardized test scores are still the dominant factors that determine students’ chances for admission.
College admissions cannot be reduced to a predictive science. A cautious strategy remains the safest approach when it comes to applying to college. In offering applicants high chances of admission, programs such as StatFuse may influence students to apply to fewer colleges. Despite what predictions may say, this is a risky strategy; colleges may and often do reject qualified candidates who have a high probability of admission. Applicants, therefore, should try to be realistic. Even though I was a relatively well-credentialed high school senior, I by no means would have been foolish enough to believe that my probability of acceptance to the University was as high as 72 percent; undoubtedly, it was significantly lower.
I commend startups such as StatFuse for taking an ambitious step toward making the college application process less stressful on the applicant. Though the site has begun to use new statistics in an effort to provide increasingly accurate predictions, its predictions continue to suffer from inherent flaws. Inevitably, intangibles play a significant role in the decision process. Yes, a certain amount of knowledge can be gleaned from statistics and other data, and sites such as StatFuse may yet hold useful information for applicants. But limitations remain. Applicants should not rely too heavily on projections in determining their lists of reach, target and safety schools.
Conor Kelly is an Opinion columnist for The Cavalier Daily. His columns run Tuesdays.
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