An impressive double-digit victory Thursday over Virginia Tech had NCAA Tournament prediction outlets buzzing. Was Virginia back? Did the Cavaliers finally figure it out, over four months removed from the No. 2 ranking in the preseason Top 25?
Four consecutive ACC series wins to close out the season undoubtedly said yes. However, two uninspiring games to close the series versus the Hokies — a loss Friday and a nail-biting win Saturday — have deflated some of this optimistic momentum entering the ACC Championship. Ahead of Virginia’s first game in the Championship at 9 p.m. Wednesday, the Cavaliers need to prioritize prevention of offensive droughts like those that led to Friday’s loss and nearly cost Virginia the series Saturday.
To be sure, over the last few weeks, the Virginia offense has, for the first time all season, inspired optimism. Before Friday’s loss, the Cavaliers had scored five or more runs in 12 straight games — a stretch that included six double-digit performances. Alongside the offensive explosion came a long-awaited power surge, as Virginia hit a home run in every game during that streak. In short, it was more than fair to finally be excited about the prospect of this offense, which showed signs of a return to 2024 levels of production.
For much of the year, though, this production did not materialize, only returning over the last month. The final two games of the Virginia Tech series serve as reminders that the Cavaliers’ offensive production remains sporadic. After game one, the Virginia bats seemingly vanished — a 12-run showing Thursday was followed by just four runs Friday and three runs Saturday. Indeed, if not for excellent pitching in the final two games, the Cavaliers very well could have lost this series, potentially sinking their NCAA Tournament hopes. As it stands, though, Virginia did enough — just enough — to win a series over a mediocre group of Hokies.
As last season illustrated, however, relying solely on the pitching staff to win games won’t be enough in the NCAA Tournament. Unlike this year’s team, 2024’s Cavaliers benefitted from ludicrous offensive output for the entire season. Just like the 2025 team, they entered the final part of the season playing their best baseball. Then, when it was most critical, Virginia’s offense lost its potency — the Cavaliers squeaked through the first two games of their regional, scoring four and five runs in the first two games. The Super Regional was a return to pace for Virginia, but the offensive struggles returned in Omaha, where the Cavaliers mustered five runs across two games and exited the College World Series in unceremonious fashion.
This year’s Virginia team, however solid their offensive output over the last few weeks, is prone to similar power outages, putting undue pressure on a pitching staff that cannot be relied upon to win games by itself.
For the moment, though, the good news is that the Cavaliers’ pitching staff has stabilized in recent weeks. Senior pitcher Jay Woolfolk threw eight sterling innings Thursday, pushing his outing to career-high distances thanks to excellent run support. When the offense faltered Friday and junior pitcher Bradley Hodges struggled early, the bullpen stepped up and pushed through the rest of the game, holding Virginia Tech to five runs despite taking the loss. And, with the series on the line Saturday, freshman pitcher Tomas Valincius delivered 6.2 innings of one-run ball, propelling Virginia to a series win despite scoring just three runs. Still, expecting heroic performances on the regular from this pitching staff is not a recipe for success given their struggles throughout the season and the quality of the opponents Virginia will face in postseason play.
Virginia Tech sports a .269 batting average, third-worst in the ACC. Its ERA isn’t much better — at 5.22, the Hokies place 11th in the conference. Dominance over Virginia Tech does not mean that Virginia will find the same success against much better ACC or NCAA teams — thus, the Cavaliers’ offensive struggles Friday and Saturday don’t bode well for Virginia’s chances in the Tournament.
To be sure, the Cavaliers are a vastly improved baseball team compared to just a month ago. Coach Brian O’Connor has found his starters, no longer giving freshmen infielders Jackson Sirois or Chone James periodic time in the lineup or swapping out junior catcher Trey Wells for graduate catcher Jacob Ference. O’Connor knows who he trusts out of the bullpen, leaning on graduate pitchers Matt Lanzendorfer and Alex Markus. But major flaws remain, particularly at the plate, and preseason expectations loom large, even as the regular season reaches its conclusion.
Entering the postseason, consistency will be more critical than ever — yet it remains elusive. That same lineup remains prone to offensive blackouts, as the Virginia Tech series showed. The offense has done enough to put Virginia in the NCAA Tournament, but it will have to find consistency at the plate or risk yet another disappointing postseason exit.
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