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Emmy Forecast

Labor Day weekend usually heralds two things: marked down prices in all stores (except, of course, the University Bookstore) and the end of summer reruns.

Which means that for one starry night - this Sunday - fans will get a reprieve from this dry spell. Viewers' favorite small screen stars will gather to do one of their favorite things: give awards to each other.

That's right, it's Emmy time yet again. And this year, the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences was on the ball in saluting last season's best, with only a couple of exceptions. As I run down the top categories, saying who should and probably will win, I'll let you know where I think Emmy erred.

One sin of omission occurred with Emmy favoring "ER," a show now struggling to find its creative pulse, over the beautifully-woven "Once and Again." The other nominees, "Law and Order," "The Practice," "The Sopranos" and "The West Wing" are all top-notch, though the race comes down to the latter two shows. "Sopranos," riding a wave of hyperbolic acclaim, has the edge, but don't count "West" out. Academy members voted when political conventions reached a fever pitch, and that may have influenced them to cast a pre-Election Day presidential vote.

The heavy influence of "Sopranos" continues to dominate the dramatic acting categories. For Best Lead Actor, count on James Gandolfini to take home the gold for his textured work as a hit man. His fellow nominees include a President (Martin Sheen on "West") and crime fighters Jerry Orbach and Sam Waterston ("Law and Order") and Dennis Franz ("NYPD Blue"). Franz, a quadruple Emmy victor, is out of place here. His work last season was of no comparison to the delicacy that the un-nominated Billy Campbell brought to his single father on "Again."

Campbell's co-star Sela Ward did manage to snag a nod in the Lead Actress category. While she and the great Amy Brenneman ("Judging Amy") both deserve the statuette, look for Edie Falco ("Sopranos") to reprise her win in this field last year. Lorraine Bracco's ("Sopranos") and Julianna Margulies' ("ER") weak seasons take them out of contention.

On the comedic side, Best Comedy Series is anybody's guess. "Friends" and "Everybody Loves Raymond" were nearly flawless last year, and neither holds a prior win in this category. However, both five-time winner "Frasier" and "Will and Grace" scored big during the year. And new episodes of the current season of "Sex and the City," the fifth nominee, make it a popular choice too. I think Emmy will be there for "Friends," but don't be shocked if she falls in love with "Grace."

While Debra Messing ("Grace") and the fantastically dry-witted Patricia Heaton ("Raymond") both earned Best Actress nods in the comedy category, this field boils down to a dead heat between the bland Jenna Elfman ("Dharma and Greg") and Sarah Jessica Parker ("Sex"). Parker's Golden Globe win last winter made her an early front-runner, but she does face some fierce competition from dark horse Jane Kaczmarek ("Malcolm in the Middle").

No offense to comedic Best Actor nominees Kelsey Grammer ("Frasier"), John Lithgow ("3rd Rock from the Sun"), Eric McCormack ("Grace") and Ray Romano ("Raymond"), but this year the award belongs to TV-retiree Michael J. Fox ("Spin City"), not because this season was his swan song, but because his genius raised the bar for all comedic actors to follow in any medium. He always went out on a limb for a laugh, but never lost sight of his character's dignity.

I can't think of anything more award-worthy than that.

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