It does not take a genius to figure it out. The Virginia men's basketball team is on the verge of a major disappointment.
After two consecutive road losses in the past week that tied Virginia for fifth place in the ACC standings, things are not looking good for the Cavaliers (16-6, 5-6 ACC). With No. 3 Duke, a team Virginia has not beaten since 1996, coming to town Wednesday, the situation doesn't look like it will get much better.
With this season's performance vacillating between high highs and low lows, Virginia has taught fans only to expect the unexpected. The Cavaliers started their season 10-0, their best start since 1992-93, before losing three of their next four games in ACC play. Virginia then went on to win five of its next six, including victories over No. 9 Maryland and No. 16 Wake Forest, before losing to unranked N.C. State and Georgia Tech on the road in its past two games.
"After these two losses, there's a lot more pressure on us," sophomore guard Roger Mason Jr. said.
After starting the season at No. 25 and climbing to No. 8 after its first 10 games, Virginia has since bounced around in the polls. The Cavaliers have been in and out of the top 10 and dropped six places in the latest rankings, from No. 6 to No. 12.
So the most pressing question for the Cavaliers is: What next?
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If things have been rough, they will only get rougher. With a losing record in the ACC, Virginia is now in a must-win situation. But only five conference games remain before the ACC Tournament, and none of them will be easy. After hosting the ACC powerhouse Blue Devils, the Cavaliers will travel to Florida State for a critical game on the road. Virginia then will host No. 1 North Carolina on Feb. 25 and Clemson on Feb. 28 before finishing off its regular season with a road contest at No. 17 Maryland on March 3.
If Virginia wants to head into the postseason with some momentum, the team needs to snap out of its recent doldrums. The Cavs have struggled on both ends of the court in their past two games. Against N.C. State, the Cavaliers allowed the Wolfpack to shoot a whopping 56.6 percent. At Georgia Tech, Virginia only made 38.6 percent of its field goals.
"We have to defend well, and we have to shoot the ball well," Virginia coach Pete Gillen said. "We need to do both to be successful, especially in a tough conference like the ACC."
The Cavaliers also will need to rediscover the elements of their game that previously gave them good results: balanced scoring, excellent free-throw shooting and good decision making down the stretch. Against the Yellow Jackets, Virginia lacked all three.
"You have days like that, where you do uncharacteristic things and things that aren't expected of you," Mason said.
"I don't know what it is or why it happens," junior forward Chris Williams added. "It's a concern, a real concern."
The play of senior point guard Donald Hand is also crucial to Virginia's success. Hand has played extremely well during the Cavaliers' big wins, but he has also put up dismal numbers during the Cavaliers' ugly losses. Hand only managed two points on 0-for-9 shooting and racked up seven turnovers in Sunday's loss to Georgia Tech.
"I know the team needs me to play [well] for us to be the team we're capable of being," Hand said. "I have to find a way to refocus."
The rest of the Cavaliers will have to follow Hand's lead. They cannot afford to repeat their Georgia Tech performance if they want to avoid plunging into a pool of disappointment as tournament play looms on the horizon.
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