College students favor Democratic presidential hopeful John Kerry over incumbent President George W. Bush, according to a nationwide study conducted by Harvard University's Institute of Politics released Thursday.
The poll also shows the number of students planning to vote in the 2004 presidential election is 62 percent, up from 50 percent in 2000, said Harvard Freshman Paul Davis, a member of the survey's analysis team.
"We think this a good sign that youth involvement will be high this year," Davis said.
The survey was conducted using results from 1,205 college students, randomly selected from a database of nearly 5.1 million students across the nation.
The report shows that among American college students, Kerry currently has a 10-point lead ahead of Bush, and suggests that support for Bush has eroded over the past few months as a result of "Iraq, a continued weak job market, and the President's stance on gay marriage."
The survey also suggests, however, that support for Kerry is "soft" and many students simply want an alternative to Bush. Thirty-seven percent of those surveyed said they are not familiar enough with Kerry to have formed an opinion about him or do not recognize his name, according to an IOP press release.
"It's more of an anti-Bush vote than a pro-Kerry vote," Davis said. "It is very striking -- it is a change from what we discovered six months prior. We had Bush beating an unnamed Democrat."
Politics Prof. Larry J. Sabato was suspicious of the Institute's survey.
"It may be true, it may not be true -- I have seen other figures that don't suggest such a tilt to Kerry among the young [voters]," Sabato said.
He added that voters from the 18 to 24-year-old demographic are more likely to switch favor between candidates in elections.
Sabato also questioned the survey's integrity, suggesting the university's location in Kerry's home state may have biased the results.
"[Harvard is] in Massachusetts, Kerry is from Massachusetts," Sabato said. "Ninety-five percent of faculty, staff and student body at Harvard are probably voting for Kerry. I think it's close among young people, and that's all I think one can reasonably say at one time. This Harvard study is probably more pro-Kerry than reality."
Davis said he did not know which figures Sabato was referring to and maintained the survey was not biased.
"The survey was not of Harvard students but of students around country," Davis said, adding that the pool of students surveyed included individuals from around the nation in both public and private universities. "It was certainly not a liberally biased survey."
Representatives from both Bush's and Kerry's campaign staff could not be reached for comment.
College Republicans Chair Ali Ahmad said Kerry's support is weak and things will turn around for Bush.
"I think that at this point in the election cycle we see the opponent of a sitting president looking stronger than he is," Ahmad said. "We feel pretty silly looking back at 1988 and saying that Michael Dukakis had widespread support among the American people. John Kerry is such an unappealing candidate that by the time we get to November, things will swing around for President Bush, even on the college campuses."
Former University Democrats President Ian Amelkin said the news that Bush's support from college students dropped over the past six months is not a surprise.
"I think that the survey is excellent news and I'm not surprised at all because if you look at the issues college students see as important, the president hasn't catered to our needs," he said.
Amelkin said Kerry's support will grow as the nation will "get to know him better" after the Democratic National Convention this summer.
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