Many inner-Beltway Northern Virginia school systems are projecting their long-term enrollments to flatten and ultimately fall within the next decade, mirroring a national trend towards slower growth in the elementary school-aged population, demographers report.
The effects of Northern Virginia population trends are magnified at the University, which draws heavily from that area. In the coming years, the University could be affected by the Northern Virginia and national trend.
Fairfax County Public Schools downgraded their projected peak enrollment from approximately 176,000 students in 2011 to 167,000 students that same year, according to the county's long-term Capital Improvement Program released in December. The Fairfax County Public Schools currently enroll 166,275 students.
"Now that the baby boomers' children are still in school, the increase is still in the enrollment for high school and middle school, yet you are actually seeing enrollment stagnation in elementary schools," Fairfax demographer Anne Cahill said.
The University, which has long drawn from this region, doesn't anticipate any dramatic change within the next few years in the composition of its student body.
"I don't expect to see any substantial change -- as a matter of fact, I don't expect to see any change at all," University Dean of Admissions John A. Blackburn said.
In the short term, the number of students seeking admission to college from the area is expected to remain level.
"It's going to take another decade and a half before it hits the university level," Cahill said.
Some of the population drop-off in Fairfax can be attributed to exploding populations outside the Beltway. Fairfax's western neighbor, Loudoun County, for example, opened four new high schools this year.
"While there are declines in Fairfax, there is huge growth in other areas of Northern Virginia," Blackburn said. "It's the same types of families with high earning and highly educated people."
Such growth leads Blackburn to conclude that the University will draw students from Northern Virginia for quite some time.
"I think Northern Virginia is going to be an economic engine of the state for a long time," Blackburn said.
Nationally, average annual growth in enrollment from 2006 to 2012 at degree-granting universities is projected to increase by 1.3 percent, the National Center for Education Statistics reports. Northern Virginia's shifting demographics are expected to be affected both by national trends and changes within the region.
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