Virginians favor former Gov. Mark R. Warner over current United States Senator George Allen by 49 to 32 percent if they were to square off against each other in a bid for president in 2008, according to a poll conducted by the University's Center for Politics released Wednesday.
The poll found Warner led his fellow Virginian in every demographic questioned except for Republicans. The Center's projections suggest that 20 percent of Virginians remain undecided.
The survey was conducted in the three weeks after Democrat Timothy M. Kaine's victory over Republican Jerry Kilgore in the gubernatorial election held this past November. Kaine's election campaign rode on the coattails of Warner, who left office with a 75 percent job approval rating according to a separate Center for Politics survey released last week.
The survey results were derived from a sampling of 1,181 randomly selected Virginians. The data was adjusted to compensate for gender and age disparities, although the Center press release noted that the poll included an over sample of people in the 18-24-year-old demographic.
This is only the fifth time since the beginning of the 20th century that an incumbent president or vice president is not seeking reelection. Smyth said that this void results in a competition that allows for better candidates to emerge.
It is highly unlikely that the two Virginians will actually emerge victoriously from the primaries and compete head to head nationally in 2008, said Sabato, who also heads the Center.
"It's a possibility, but it's not a probability," he said. "It's just not likely that two Virginians would be running against each other."
The poll results did not concern many Allen supporters, said Brian Gunn, chairman of the University chapter of the College Republicans who is also active in state-wide GOP activities.
"George Allen is a highly respected conservative senator well on the way to obtaining the Republican Party's nomination for president in 2008," Gunn said. "His beliefs are right in line with the mainstream of America, and as media attention grows, so will his support. Warner on the other hand will be forced to veer far to the left to compete with the Howard Deans and Hillary Clintons of his party, and then we'll all see how poorly his ratings will fair in the Commonwealth."
Statewide Democratic activists were pleased with Warner's showing in the poll and speculated he eventually would garner the Democratic presidential nomination, said Kevin Griffis, a spokesman for the Virginia Democratic Party.
"I think it's clear that [Warner] would be an extremely attractive candidate nationally," Griffis said. "He could point to real results in Virginia and historic investments in education, environment and public safety. He has a record of bringing people together."
University Democrats President Katie Cristol shared this sentiment and said she looks forward to seeing Warner's record discussed nationally.
"We are thrilled but not surprised," Cristol said. "Mark Warner has had an excellent bipartisan record and [oversaw] economic progress."
If this matchup does indeed occur and Warner wins the state of Virginia's electoral votes, he would be the first Democratic presidential candidate to do so since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
Regardless of the outcome, Smyth said the prominence of either of the two Virginia candidates is good for the Commonwealth.
"It's something we did to get a feel for Virginians' opinions on the election," he said. "The good thing about this is that it shows a return to prominence for Virginia."
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