A recent study found black enrollment rates in higher education institutions would decline if affirmative action were ended in 25 years, despite a projected decrease in the income gap between black and white Americans.
The study, conducted by University Education Prof. Sarah Turner and Princeton Economics Professors Alan Krueger and Jesse Rothstein, investigated a statement by former Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor several years ago, in which she claimed that while affirmative action is justifiable in the short term, it would not be needed 25 years in the future, Rothstein said.
"What we concluded [is that] if your goal is to maintain current levels of black enrollment at selective colleges, you'll still need it 25 years for now," Rothstein said, noting that there would be "a price to pay" if affirmative action were ended in the near future.
University Chief Diversity Officer William Harvey said he thinks O'Connor's statement was "incredibly optimistic."
The study found that if affirmative action were eliminated in 25 years, colleges and universities would have 10 to 40 percent fewer black students, depending on "how optimistic your projection is," Rothstein said.
If affirmative action were to be eliminated today, the number of black students would fall by a half to two-thirds, Rothstein added.
The study's findings are based on the positive correlation between income and academic success, which Rothstein described as "fairly high."
Students with more resources are more likely to attend a school which will prepare them for college and are more likely to achieve higher scores on standardized tests, Rothstein explained.
Rothstein said the study's prediction about the future economic well-being of blacks is based on recent research which has shown that the income gap between any two groups--black and white Americans, in this case--will decrease by approximately 50 percent every generation.
Harvey said affirmative action addresses historical inequities and supports America's foundation of giving people equal opportunities.
Harvey said he hopes society will approach proportional representation, not only in base-level jobs but in managerial positions, before affirmative action is eliminated.
"That would be a statement of parity," he said.
Rothstein said he and his research partners chose to focus solely on black enrollment rather than including Latinos in the study, in part because the factor of future immigration would make projections about future enrollment difficult.
The study's findings were recently published in the College Board's publication, Opportunity or Privilege, and will also appear in the American Law and Economics Review, Rothstein said.
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