A recent national study suggests racial diversity of high school graduating classes across the country is on the rise, indicating a projected increase in the number of Latino students graduating from high school while the overall number of high school graduates decreases.
In Virginia specifically, the native state for 67 percent of the prospective students admitted to the University this year, the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education report, "Knocking at the College Door," predicts the high school graduate population will peak in 2008-09, then decline 4.1 percent through 2014-15. As the percentage of white graduates is expected to dip, graduation rates of students of black and Asian/Pacific Islander descent are forecasted to grow slightly and the Latino high school graduate population is projected to jump 130 percent.
Nationally, the WICHE report predicts that by 2022, half of all public high school graduates will be minority students, with half that number consisting of Latino students.
According to Dean of Admissions John Blackburn, changes in the size of the Virginia high school graduate population will not affect the University's plans for admissions.
"Our enrollment numbers are determined in an agreement between the state and the University; 3,170 is our goal this fall," Dean of Admissions John Blackburn said, adding that "population changes would not affect our plans to [alter] the size of the student body."
Although the proportion of Latino high school graduates is predicted to increase, Blackburn did not foresee any immediate, significant changes in the diversity of the undergraduate student body, 4.4 percent of which describes itself as Hispanic and Latino Americans. Citing trends that Latino students generally come from more economically challenged backgrounds and consequently, less academically rigorous backgrounds, Blackburn said there is no certainty that enrollment at more selective universities will reflect national trends. In short, the correlation between academic achievement and acceptance rates will continue to be stronger, he added.
Students from a low-income background often have fewer academic resources available to them, which can affect their performance at the collegiate level, said University alumnus Brian Prescott, senior research analyst at WICHE.
"Low-income students [are] more likely to be racial and ethnic minorities, and although the pipeline of high school graduates is becoming increasingly diverse, they will be less affluent, less prepared academically," he said.
Prescott said he hopes the study will entice admission officials, including ones at the University, to recruit students more actively from these growing minority populations.
In order to do just that, the University is not only continuing to provide financial aid to students from low-income backgrounds through AccessUVa, but the Office of Undergraduate Admissions is also taking steps to facilitate opportunities for students from economically disadvantaged backgrounds to prepare for more stringent academic demands, Blackburn said.
"One of the things our office is trying to do is to persuade low-income families who have suffered discrimination from institutions of higher education to get [their children] into academic programs that will prepare them for college," Blackburn said.
As the national demographics of graduating high school students change, colleges and universities should shift their focus to provide opportunities to the growing number of minority students, Preston said.
"In a global environment in which higher education is what is valued, we need to be able to educate these growing populations like we have done with primarily whites," Preston said.
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