If I had made a list in mid-November about where I wanted the women's basketball team to be in mid-February, most items would be checked off right about now.\nIs Monica Wright playing out of her mind and continually improving? Check.
For me, the most telling Wright statistic is her average 22.7 points against non-conference opponents and 25.7 against ACC foes. That means she's improving as the season goes along and she's playing better against better teams. Her ability to cope with the nation's elite will be key for Virginia during the postseason.
Is her support staff gradually improving and showing flashes of brilliance? Check.
Thanks to good coaching and leadership, most players seem to have figured out their roles. Wright can dominate, but the team is in its best shape when everyone pulls their weights. Go down the list of players who receive significant playing time, and almost all of them are matching or exceeding expectations.
Sophomore forward Chelsea Shine is a steady No. 2 in scoring and rebounds and has enough confidence to take control for short stretches.
Paulisha Kellum is a redshirt junior, and her experience shows. Nobody on the team has proven more clutch; against Miami, she scored 10 points during overtime after totaling only four through two halves of play.
Sophomore guard Whitny Edwards is the most promising pure scorer on the team. She's the type of shooter who will quietly drop 17 points, and you won't realize it until you look at the stat sheet after the game.\nLexie Gerson has become an unlikely starter as a freshman. Her primary job is to make a few great plays a game and prevent the Cavaliers from slumping. She's become an energy player and a catalyst, even if her 34.9 percent shooting average is a bit too low for her to be particularly intimidating to opponents.
Freshman forward Telia McCall isn't as consistent a rebounder and defender as she needs to be yet, but her mind-boggling 20-rebound game against a ranked North Carolina team shows just how effective she can be. If McCall can consistently perform even half as well as she did Monday against the Tar Heels, she'll instantly become the second most important Cavalier behind Wright.
The final Cavalier who has had a significant and positive impact for the team is the one who could become the leader when Wright graduates. Sophomore guard Ariana Moorer is extremely dangerous at both the one and the two. If her season seems a bit quiet, it's because she's been more focused on setting up teammates and doing little things you don't see on the stat sheet, rather than scoring and directly powering her team's offense.
The team's disappointments, if there are any, would have to be freshman center Simone Egwu and freshman guard China Crosby. Crosby's struggles are easily defined: She's injured and, hopefully, she'll at least get another year of eligibility out of this mess. She's the best prospect the team has brought in since Wright, so the longer Virginia can keep her, the better.
Egwu is slightly more perplexing and frustrating. Toward the beginning of the season, coach Debbie Ryan projected her as an Aisha Mohammed-like presence in the post, someone who could average at least five and five, and occasionally push for a double-double.
But Egwu has lived up to this standard only against bottom-rung teams. For example, she exploded last night for 18 points and 16 rebounds against lowly Longwood.
Against the heavy-hitters - the types of teams the Cavaliers will take on during the postseason - Egwu's game has fallen apart.
This is something one can only hope improves with time, but it's hard to predict when. It seems unlikely she'll really pull herself together before next year.
Is Virginia showing toughness under pressure and other signs of good coaching? Check.
Nobody doubts Debbie Ryan's coaching chops, but it's been somewhat difficult to tell how thoroughly she's gotten through to her players during the past couple of years. Two years in a row, Virginia's ACC and NCAA tournament runs have ended earlier than they should have because of breakdowns under pressure.
The team is looking a little bit more settled this year, which is surprising, considering the team's overall youth. But the overtime wins and the frequency of non-stars taking command of the games when the team needs it are there right now.
What's less surprising - but still comforting - when considering the Cavaliers' youthful roster, is how steadily the team has improved during the past three months.
Is Virginia building steam at just the right time? Check.
The loss against Final Four-hopeful Tennessee Nov. 22 has turned out to be a blessing in disguise, just as Ryan predicted.
"We got a lot of good things from really young players today," Ryan said following the Tennessee game. "They'll take this experience and build on it. This is a game that is early in the year, and, win or lose, it helps you."
That loss allowed Virginia to sneak under the radar, even as it played the type of title-contenders it will need to crack to make deep postseason runs.
Now, the difficult schedule all season long has built Virginia's strength and readied it for late February and March. The Cavaliers are 9-1 during their past 10 games.
Is the ACC shaping up to improve Virginia's chances at making a run at a conference title? Check.
Right now, there's no team in the ACC so good that it'd be heavily favored against Virginia. It seems to be a down year for the traditional powers - North Carolina, Duke, Maryland - and a transition year for the up-and-coming teams, such as Florida State and Georgia Tech.
The more I look at this Virginia team, the more I like its position. The Cavaliers are looking like serious sleepers in both tournaments.
We'll learn a lot more about the potential of this postseason during the upcoming bouts with Duke and Florida State. But if I was forced to make a prediction about how deep the Cavaliers will advance in postseason play, I'd say Virginia will make it to at least the final four of the ACC Tournament and the Sweet Sixteen of the NCAA Tournament. With the leadership of Wright and gradual emergence of the underclassmen, I like the Cavaliers as a possible Cinderella this March.
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