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Cooper Center estimates recovering population growth rate

Migration to Virginia state increases, comes closer to population before recession

The state population's growth rate is beginning to return to figures close to those from before the recession, according to a study by the University's Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service.

The population grew by 87,000 people from July 2008 to 2009, said Mike Spar, a research associate with the Center's Demographics and Workforce Group. Though this is an increase from 76,000 people during 2007-08, it is not nearly as close to the annual 90,000-plus increase from 2000 to 2005.

"Population growth is not quite back to where it was but certainly looks like it is returning," he said.

The Cooper Center produces the official population estimates used by state and local government agencies. The researchers base their estimates on indicators that are symptomatic of population change, including changes in school enrollment, driver's licenses, birth rates and housing stock.

"We do it every year, and, frankly, the population doesn't change immensely from one year to the next," Spar said, explaining that it continues with the persistency of a "super tanker," except when faced with "something huge," such as a recession.

Spar attributes these changes to the increase of people moving to Virginia, many of whom are "young, married people who get jobs and pay taxes." Such migrants "do a number of good things, economically," he said.

During the long term, Spar said he feels the population growth trend will impact the state positively.

The state's growing population presents challenges as well as benefits, however. City Council Member David Brown said the City of Charlottesville is struggling to maintain its dock of affordable housing.

"Demand for housing has caused prices to go up and affordability to be lost," Brown said.

Despite the high cost of living, he said he believes the area will continue to grow.

"I think Charlottesville has been a very attractive place to live," Brown said. "With a healthy economy and the Downtown Mall, it's a place where people want to be"

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