Philip Barton, deputy head of mission at the British Embassy in Washington, visited the University yesterday to speak to Assoc. Politics Prof. John Echeverri-Gent's "Politics in India and Pakistan" class. Barton discussed the current relations between Pakistan and India and the necessity of American and British involvement in the conflict.
When Barton served as first secretary in New Delhi in 1994, he was responsible for overseeing relations between India and Pakistan, Kashmir and non-proliferation issues.
"There's a huge risk out there," he said, highlighting the four main reasons why U.S. and U.K. involvement is vital in South Asia: the risk of nuclear war, the lack of free trade, the terrorism base in Pakistan and Pakistan's potential to aid the U.S. in interactions with Afghanistan during the next two years.
"If I'm completely honest, the prospects aren't brilliant, but we need to stay involved and try everything we can because the risk is so high if we pull out completely," Barton said.
Echeverri-Gent said despite economic and military pressures, U.S. policymakers have an interest in resolving the India-Pakistan conflict because it is an "issue that is vital to America as well as countries in South Asia."
Barton said negotiations have failed in the past because efforts have been bilateral rather than multilateral.
India and Pakistan continue to fight about ownership of Kashmir, and both countries are unwilling to allow the United States, United Kingdom and United Nations to mediate, Barton explained.
"Kashmir is the biggest issue," he said. "There has been incremental progress, [and then] either Pakistan gets close and says what we really care about is Kashmir, or ... there will be a terrorist attack in India and then they will say, 'Well, we are not willing to do anything while they are sending people over to attack us.'"
Michael Krepon, co-founder and senior associate of Stimson, a nonprofit and nonpartisan group aimed at encouraging international peace, was also present at Barton's presentation. He addressed the issues which affect U.S.-Pakistan relations, saying three-quarters of U.S. military supplies, including water, food and petroleum come through Pakistan.
"When you are dealing with Pakistan, the thing to know is that there are no easy choices," Krepon said. "Because every decision has a huge downside. And of course you still have to make decisions."\nDespite the difficulty of these decisions, Barton expressed hope for resolution as he discussed the near success of a secret "blueprint" plan to fix the Kashmir issue.
A 2006-07 crisis led to the plan which eliminated border changes, made the line of control irrelevant and gave Kashmir a very high degree of autonomy and self-government, he said. Although the United States and United Kingdom believed this deal would solve the core issue, the plan was not put into effect in time.
Regarding the future of the Indo-Pakistani conflict, Barton suggests an approach he calls "nudging diplomacy," which outlines a method to move things forward without pressuring the conflicting sides into irresolution. "We can't shove them together, but we can push them together to make them more likely to reach a solution," he said.
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