Former Gov. Tim Kaine, the Democratic candidate for one of Virginia's U.S. Senate seats, holds a significant lead among residents of western Virginia against Republican candidate former Gov. George Allen, according to a poll released this week by the University Center for Survey Research.
The poll surveyed 1,096 adult residents from the greater Charlottesville area in January. The poll showed 59.3 percent of voters who expressed a preference would vote for Kaine, and 40.7 percent would vote for Allen. The remaining 15.6 percent did not express a preference.
University Center for Politics spokesperson Geoff Skelley, however, said Kaine's advantage was likely affected by the area the University Center for Survey Research analyzed.
"The area that this survey polled is a fairly Democratic area, at least in the sense of Charlottesville and Albemarle," Skelley said. "There's basically [a population of] 150,000 in these two areas and 90,000 in the rest of the areas [surveyed], so [Kaine's advantage] only makes sense."
Skelley said if other counties had been polled, such as nearby Orange County, the results may have been different.
The poll also surveyed Albemarle, Greene, Nelson, Fluvanna and Louisa Counties.
Allen received majority support in only two of the counties selected, earning 65.2 percent in Greene County and 51.9 percent in Louisa County. He also received a small majority of support among citizens more than 64 years old, 50.8 percent of whom said they would choose him instead of Kaine. Voters whose highest level of education was a high school diploma also favored Allen.
Almost 65 percent of female respondents indicated they would support Kaine. He also received the majority backing from the poorest and wealthiest citizens, and non-white voters gave him 84.8 percent of their support.
Skelley said because Kaine is a Democrat, his large advantage with minority and female groups is unsurprising.
"In 2008 Obama won the Latino vote, the vote of people between the ages of 18 to 29, and 56 percent of women," Skelley said. "It's generalizing but it's true... if Democrats want to win, they had better be winning with those groups."
Kaine's campaign spokesperson Lily Adams said these initial poll numbers are encouraging.
"We're thrilled by the support that Gov. Kaine has received in this grassroots campaign," Adams said. "We will continue to build support as we travel across the state until November."
Skelley said the current results might not be a reliable way to evaluate the statewide race, as the majority of Virginians surveyed live in areas which lean slightly more to the left.
"Albemarle used to be more Republican but in recent years it has been trending Democratic," Skelley said. "The rest of the counties with smaller populations [may be] slightly more Republican but they are outnumbered."
The spokesman for Allen's campaign could not be reached for comment.
The U.S. Senate election will take place Nov. 6.
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