With selection Sunday less than three weeks away, let’s see how well you really know the best teams in the country. Do you trust that little number next to a team’s name when you watch them on TV? Do you turn to KenPom each week to feel like a more sophisticated college basketball fan? Or maybe you watch a dozen games a week and have your own solid opinions on which teams are good and which aren’t.
However you prefer to evaluate, let’s take some time to challenge ourselves, and more importantly, challenge the “experts.”
Never put too much stock into an AP or coaches poll. The people that cast ballots probably know a lot more about basketball than you do, but in a world where analytics in sports has not been fully embraced by the journalistic and coaching communities, the voters are likely putting far too much stock into pure records and the “eye-test.” The more shrewd voters will look at strength of schedule in addition to “good wins” and “bad losses,” but more often than not, journalists and coaches justify their opinions with their perceptions.
I don’t want to knock perceptions too much. The biggest weakness is that they’re inconsistent. People don’t use any sort of sophisticated formula in their head to evaluate how good they think a team looks — it’s much more dependent on uncontrollable psychological factors than anyone would like to admit (think Daniel Kahneman or Malcolm Gladwell). People put too much stock in teams that are “supposed to be good,” and too little stock into teams that no one expected to do well.
But analytics come with their own problem. A formula is just as good as the man who put it together. Sure, it will be consistent and give every team a fair shot to rank well. But that’s meaningless if ranking well in one particular algorithm has little reflection on reality. And analytics could never accurately account for things like a team’s demeanor or when certain players are banged up — two things that are all-important in basketball. Additionally, maybe it isn’t the best thing in the world to have a strict formula to determine rankings, as factors that are important at the beginning of the season may not matter as much at the end of the season, and vice versa.
All of this is impossible to know, but I thought it would be fun to challenge — as well as try to justify — the rankings of the best five teams in college basketball. What are the AP voters missing? What is the computer failing to take into account? Which is more important? In general, are the teams overrated or underrated?
Teams are ordered by AP Poll rankings, but I’ll also include the Coaches Poll rankings, as well as the KenPom and BPI ranks.
No. 5. Wisconsin (4 in Coaches, 4 in KenPom, 3 in BPI):
Right off the bat, we have a team that’s ranked higher by the computers than by the voters. The Badgers (25-2, 13-1 Big Ten) have a three game lead in their conference standings with four games remaining on the schedule, and arguably the best player in the nation in senior forward Frank Kaminsky. Let’s take a closer look.
Why they’re overrated:
Wisconsin lost to Rutgers 67-61 in January. Yes, that same Rutgers team that Virginia held to 26 points a little more than a month earlier. They’ve only defeated one ranked team all year, which was a No. 25 Iowa squad that fell out of the polls just a week later. They lost to the only other ranked team they played — No. 4 Duke — at home by double-digits.
Why they might not be:
It’s pretty clear why the computers have Wisconsin so high. They have the highest adjusted offensive efficiency rating in the country, and they’ve failed to win by double digits in just five of their 27 games. Also, in that blemish against Rutgers, Kaminsky didn’t play and they lost starting senior guard Traevon Jackson early in the second half.
Verdict:
The AP poll has them right where they should be. Their offense is undoubtedly impressive, but there aren’t many quality wins to gloat about.
No. 4 Duke (5 in Coaches, 8 in Ken Pom, 7 in BPI):
Is this the classic case of voters rewarding past success rather than present success? Maybe. The Blue Devils (24-3, 11-3 ACC) are third in their conference and have more losses than three teams ranked behind them in the polls. Considering the computers have them significantly lower — relatively, of course — than the humans, we should start asking some questions.
Why they’re overrated:
Duke has two losses to unranked opponents, which is more than all of the other top-five teams combined. The Blue Devils can look like two different squads at times. How can you take back-to-back losses against ACC middle-dwellers N.C. State and Miami, and then go into Louisville and win by double digits? How can you build a 13 point lead against North Carolina at home, and then have to crawl back to win in overtime? Part of the answer is their No. 52 adjusted defensive efficiency rating — the worst among AP top-10 teams.
Why they might not be:
When Duke is on, they’re on. Duke has four wins over teams that were ranked in the AP top-10 at the time, which is also more than the all the other top 5 teams combined. They’ve beaten Wisconsin, Louisville and Notre Dame all by double digits. Their adjusted strength of schedule, according to KenPom, is much higher than any of the other teams in this list. And they have the likely No. 1 NBA draft pick in freshman center Jahlil Okafor.
Verdict:
I think the computers are wrong on this one. They fall behind in the algorithms due to the losses to N.C. State and Miami, but Duke has shown that when top competition comes calling, they’re the best team in the nation.
No. 3 Gonzaga (2 in Coaches, 5 in KenPom, 4 in BPI):
I’m just going to come out and say it — the Bulldogs (28-1, 16-0 WAC) are the reason I wrote this column. I cannot fathom how in any way people think this team is better than Virginia. But apparently the college basketball coaches do, so let’s evaluate the team’s case.
Why they’re overrated:
Like Wisconsin, they’ve only played two ranked teams, and lost to one of them. They beat No. 21 SMU in November, and lost to No. 7 Arizona in early December. Since then, they’ve played just two teams in KenPom’s top 50 — the higher being No. 31 BYU with a 21-8 record. But they did win in a nail-biter at 16-12 Pepperdine! Their adjusted strength of schedule is No. 82, according to KenPom. TLDR: they haven’t beaten anyone.
Why they might not be:
Gonzaga has been doing some pretty scary things on offense, and they’re having one of the best shooting years ever, going 52.7 percent from the floor as a team. KenPom has their adjusted offensive efficiency at No. 3 nationally, which even takes into account strength of schedule.
Verdict:
Gonzaga might be really good. As for the other four teams in this list, we know they’re really good. When you’re comparing two teams with just one loss — each coming against a top 10 team — I just don’t understand how you can give the edge to the team with one top 25 win as opposed to the team with five top 25 wins.
No. 2 Virginia (3 in Coaches, 2 in KenPom, 2 in BPI):
The Cavaliers (25-1, 13-1 ACC) are probably the most underappreciated No. 2 team in history. We get no respect, as demonstrated by ESPN pundits and USA Today “writers.” The computers have had us at No. 2 for months, and the coaches still haven’t caught up. They think a one-loss team in a mid-major is better than a one-loss team in the best conference in the country, apparently.
Why they’re overrated:
The injuries aren’t great. After we lost junior guard Justin Anderson our offense started to flounder, and missing sophomore guard London Perrantes for a game or two would just make things worse. Our offensive efficiency, according to KenPom, has fallen all the way down from No. 6 to No. 31, which is now worst among AP top 10 teams. Additionally, really close wins against Wake Forest, Virginia Tech and Miami have shown some vulnerability.
Why they might not be:
One word: defense. KenPom has the Cavaliers with the best defense in the nation, and that’s about all you need to know. Our resume speaks for itself. Wins against VCU, Maryland, Notre Dame, North Carolina and Louisville is arguably the best set of any team in the country other than Duke. Only we don’t have Duke’s bad losses.
Verdict:
If it’s possible for a No. 2 team to be underrated, we are — not in the polls, but in popular opinion. Apparently back-to-back seasons with 13 wins in the toughest conference in basketball isn’t enough to earn some respect.
No. 1 Kentucky (1 in everything you can think of):
People are talking about the Wildcats (27-0, 14-0 SEC) being one of the greatest teams ever, and it’s hard to argue with them. Kentucky has players on its bench that will likely be first round draft picks. They beat No. 8 Kansas by 32. It’s just not fair. But let’s take a closer look.
Why they’re overrated:
The only answer I have here are the close games. Kentucky has overtime wins against Mississippi and Texas A&M, and only beat LSU by two. None of those teams are particularly good, and all of those games were truly a toss up at the end.
Why they might not be:
The Wildcats are the only team in the country that is ranked in the top ten in KenPom adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. They have eight players that will likely get drafted. And most importantly, they haven’t lost a game while still playing a pretty tough schedule. Also, this entire article.
Verdict:
Everyone and their mother is drooling over Kentucky, and it’s with good reason. They aren’t unbeatable, but they’re as close to it as anyone is getting this year.
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