ANYONE who follows the presidential election knows that recently, Texas Gov. George W. Bush (R) has set his smirk on the Golden State.
With 54 electoral votes, California is the Electoral College's largest prize; it also has been considered a sure win for Gore. But recently, Bush has been cutting the lead down - in some polls to as little as 5 percent, well within the margin of error. In the final days before the election, Bush has devoted a significant part of his campaign towards this newly dubbed "battleground" state.
However, this move is distracting Bush from the real battleground states, and wastes time and money on a state that Bush almost certainly will lose.
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At first, this tactic might seem like a sign that the Bush campaign is gathering strength. This past Sunday, Bush himself said, "I've said it before and I'll say it again, we are going to win the state of California."
Allen Hoffenblum, a veteran GOP political consultant based in Los Angeles, said "Last summer, I kept getting calls from reporters asking me how soon Bush would pull out of California. Well, he's fulfilling his commitment and it is Al Gore who has pulled out of California."
Bush himself seems confident that he will carry California on election night. "I tell you, there are going to be a lot of shocked people on Nov. 7 - starting with my opponent," he said in regard to the California race. ("A Confident Bush Says He Can Win California's Vote," New York Times, Oct. 30)
California, where Gore has enjoyed a double-digit lead even at his lowest point in the summer polls, seemingly has fallen into a dead heat. We don't need to look at polls to see this, just glance at the headlines: "California Claims a Campaign Spotlight," (Reuters, Oct. 27) "Desperate Gore Sings California, Here I Come," (New York Post, Oct. 29) "A Confident Bush Says He Can Win California." (New York Times, Oct. 31)
CNN recently has added California to its list of "battleground states," but the state doesn't seem worthy of the title. Bush, in one poll, came within the margin of error of Al Gore. Not ahead, mind you. No, within the margin of error, and suddenly the Bush campaign is whooping it up like California is theirs for the picking.
Other polls seem to show a clearer picture of the race. All major polls show Gore up between 5 and 10 percent, most outside of the margin of error. This shows a clear lead for Gore.
Also, polls show that 51 percent of California voters have an unfavorable opinion of Bush, while more than 60 percent have a favorable view of Gore. Even Hillary Clinton has lower negatives than that, and she's struggling to win a majority of the voters in New York.
The majority of California voters are pro-choice, against vouchers and for gun control. Bush is pro-life, for vouchers and against gun control. If he thinks he's going to win California, he's got another thing coming.
But Bush has spent more than $10 million in California. Gore has yet to spend a cent. Bush has made more than a dozen appearances since the primaries. Gore has made none. Bush may be coming close to Gore in the polls, but he won't get much closer, no matter how hard he tries.
There's also the time factor. In California, which is three hours behind Eastern Standard Time, the polls will be open when the results from battleground states such as Florida and Pennsylvania come in. Two big Gore wins on the East Coast could dispel late Bush supporters from going out to vote. The chance of Bush pulling a surprise victory out of California is almost impossible. But it hasn't stopped Bush from pulling money, ads and campaign time out of the states that need it the most.
While Bush was out campaigning in California, Gore pulled ahead by seven points in Florida, a state that Bush simply can't afford to lose. In the past few days, the trend in battleground states has been against Bush, with Gore leading Florida by 11 points in one poll, and picking up leads in Illinois, Wisconsin and Missouri. Bush, in the meantime, has lost his outright leads in Tennessee and Pennsylvania, leading each state by less than four points.
With all of this at stake, and Gore campaigning hard in Michigan, Wisconsin and the Pacific Northwest, Bush would be better off devoting time and money to some of the states where Nader is siphoning votes away from Gore.
"I'm dropping everything and going to California." That's not a quote by Bush, it's a quote by Bob Dole in October of 1996. Unless Bush starts focusing on the battleground states, he risks suffering the same fate as Dole.
(Brian Cook is a Cavalier Daily viewpoint writer.)
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