Cynicism and politics go together like peanut butter and jelly. A good citizen questions every word that comes out of a politician's mouth. But Americans must also extend this skepticism to the polls that attempt to express public opinion.
Polls give the impression that they let the American public know what the rest of America is thinking. A powerful force, public opinion seems like it should be measured quantitatively. But polls are nothing more than peer pressure machines that shift public opinion rather than measure them. As students and as citizens, we must scrutinize polls and question whether they benefit our political system.
Some will say that they prefer a politician who pays careful attention to public opinion (i.e. polls), since politicians are representatives who should reflect their constituents' beliefs. But it is idealistic to believe politicians will really do what the voters want them to. Democracy relies on the open exchange of ideas, but polls are a poor medium that requires public scrutiny. Polls cause politicans to make empty campaign promises; therefore, citizens must scrutinize the polls' potential benefit to society.
For example, former President Bill Clinton and former Vice President Al Gore, "friends of the environment," were the first administration in 25 years to not demand higher fuel efficiency standards for automobiles. Claiming to be pro-environment during the campaign, the Democrats used this leverage against the Republicans. In this case, the Democrats took advantage of the polls that report that the environment is important to voters, but then didn't follow through on their promise. This behavior is evident on both sides of the aisle; countless politicians have taken advantage of polls to make false promises. Polls are an easy way to create demagogues -- the temptation to make false promises is too strong for politicans to ignore. It's easy to blame the politicians, but the polls perpetuate the problem.
Politicians are not the only ones misusing polls. Polls also place unprecedented power in the hands of the major media outlets. The media outlets, even if unknowingly, often abuse this power.
Polls are not as accurate as the media lets the public believe. According to the National Council on Public Polls, the news media has a flawed record of reporting inaccurate, partisan and even fabricated polls. The election of 2000, when the major media outlets predicted, pre-maturely, the winner based on exit-polls proves the media's irresponsibility when reporting polls.
When the reputable news organizations cannot guarantee scientific accuracy, the polls used in many campaign advertisements should be scrutinized even further. Many politicians use polls in their advertisements to claim how strong they're doing in the race. But polls are inconsistent depending on who is completing the survey.
For example, in Connecticut's fifth district, three polls were taken for the race for a spot in the House of Representatives. According to nationaljournal.com, a poll by the University of Connecticut put the Republican up by 16 points. A poll taken by the Republican-based American Viewpoint organization raises the lead to 19 points. And the poll by the Democratic-based Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research claimed that the race was a dead heat at 42 points apiece! Polls presented in campaign advertisements that are taken by partisan sources are neither trustworthy nor accurate and should be taken with a very large grain of salt.
The NCPP is trying to combat the misperceptions caused by polls. The organization, according to its Web site, tries to "set the highest professional standards for public opinion pollsters, and to advance the understanding, among politicians, the media and general public, of how polls are conducted and how to interpret poll results." They sponsor seminars, press conferences and workshops that promote understanding of polls.
To detect bias in polls requires a keen understanding of the questions and the ethics and protocol of polls. The NCPP recommends a journalist asks 20 questions about a poll before reporting it as accurate. But the media does not consistently challenge polls according to the NCPP. Bias is not as detectable as one might imagine. Pollsters can report "probable voters" or "definite voters." They can also easily change the question to skew the results one way or another. For example, the question "If the election were held today, who would you vote for?" is quite different from, "Who are you planning to vote for on Election Day?" Considering how most polls already have a range of error of at least three points either way, it is easy to conclude how unreliable polls are in predicting the results accurately and fairly.
When used correctly, polls can serve a valuable service for the country. However, polls are abused and propagate false campaign promises. Because polls seem to create more problems than they solve, they require careful inspection and scrutiny from all Americans.
(Patrick Harvey is a Cavalier Daily
viewpoint writer.)
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