Some argue that Virginia, normally a quiet state during presidential elections, is heating up this year.
Polling data and an infusion of resources are giving Democrats hope that Sen. John Kerry can pull out a close victory over President George W. Bush and win Virginia's 13 electoral votes in the upcoming fall election.
Kerry, however, must confront 40 years of history. The last Democrat to carry Virginia was Lyndon Johnson in 1964, and Republicans, who dominate Virginia's state and congressional delegations, say Bush is prepared for victory in the state he won by eight points in 2000.
The polling firm Zogby International recently added Virginia to its list of battleground states. Jonathan Beeton, Kerry's spokesperson in Virginia, said the close race means trouble for the Bush campaign.
"The fact that Virginia is competitive means that a traditionally Republican state is becoming more Democratic, which spells trouble for the Republican party," Beeton said.
Shawn Smith, communications director for the Virginia Republican Party, said Bush remains poised to win the state.
"We're confident the President's going to win in Virginia," Smith said.
Beeton said the most important indicator of Virginia's importance is the growing number of visits from Kerry, his running mate Sen. John Edwards, and their family members, including several recent trips to Virginia colleges by Vanessa Kerry and other candidates' children.
"That's an incredible level of candidate and top-level surrogate time," Beeton said. "You can always buy more advertising, you can always buy more signs, but what you can't buy more of is time."
Despite the competitiveness, Bush likely will win the state, Politics Prof. Larry J. Sabato said.
"Bush is the favorite and likely to win Virginia, but Kerry is making a strong play for the state and so an upset can't be absolutely ruled out," Sabato said.
According to Beeton, the Kerry campaign has spent over $2.5 million in Virginia so far and is employing dozens of staffers, a vast increase over the attention paid to the state by Al Gore in 2000. Sabato noted, however, that the most recent advertisement purchase by the Kerry campaign did not include Virginia, a sign that the state may already be out of Kerry's reach.
Bush's showing in Virginia could reflect his strength nationwide, according to Sabato.
"Bush cannot afford to lose Virginia under any circumstances," Sabato said. "There's no way he'll win the Electoral College without Virginia."
Smith said Bush's strengths nationwide would also help him in Virginia.
"The top two issues in Virginia and across the nation are national security and the economy," Smith said.
Although Virginia voters nearly selected Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1996, Kerry is the first Democratic candidate since Carter to actively target the state. Democratic Gov. Mark Warner's 2001 victory played a role in Kerry's decision, Sabato said.
"Kerry would not have targeted Virginia had Mark Warner not been governor," Sabato said. "A Democratic governor makes all the difference"
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