If the presidential election were held today, the breakdown of battleground states would probably give President George W. Bush a razor-thin victory, Politics Prof. Larry J. Sabato predicted last night in his famous Crystal Ball presentation before a packed audience in the Chemistry auditorium.
But as the opening slide of his presentation declared, Sabato said the presidential race continues to be "tight as a tick." The Electoral College, Sabato said, could just as easily yield a victory by Sen. John Kerry -- or, in a "nightmare scenario," a tie.
Sabato emphasized the unpredictability of the close race, both nationally and in several battleground states.
"Nobody can tell you who's going to win a state by 500 votes," Sabato said.
The "four north stars" of presidential campaigns, according to Sabato, are war and peace, the economy, scandals, and divisive social issues, but the first is by far the most important.
"If it ends up being about Iraq, Kerry will win," Sabato said. "If it ends up being about the broader war on terror, Bush will win."
The presence of social issues such as gay marriage on ballots in several states could boost Republican chances, Sabato said.
"The social conservatives are going to be turning out in droves," he said.
Noting that the two parties and related interest groups will have 26,000 lawyers scattered throughout the country on Election Day, Sabato said he was worried about the effect legal wrangling could have on a close election.
"If we have a second straight election decided by the courts, or better yet, Congress, the people are going to become even more cynical," Sabato said.
Turning to Senate races, Sabato predicted a 53-45 Republican majority, with two complete toss-ups, in South Dakota and Florida, to determine how large the majority would be. The South Dakota race, where Minority Leader Tom Daschle is tied with Republican challenger John Thune going into the final week, especially worries Democrats Sabato said he has spoken with.
"Every one of them told me they're scared to death that Daschle will lose," he said."
The Republican Party may lose a few seats or gain a few seats in the House of Representatives, but they will maintain their majority, Sabato said.
Sabato noted the Republican majorities in Congress would make life very difficult for a President Kerry.
"He can ditch his entire domestic agenda," Sabato said. "It's not going to pass."
The Crystal Ball presentation marked the final event in the Center for Politics' National Symposium on Youth Civic Engagement, held during 2004. The Center, in conjunction with various student groups, also recently completed its goal of registering over 2004 University students as voters.
The Crystal Ball will be updated online on Monday, Nov. 1, the day before the election. The Crystal Ball, which began as a pre-election seminar in 1998 and added a Web site in 2002, successfully predicted over 90 percent of gubernatorial races, over 95 percent of Senate races, and 99.6 percent of House of Representatives races in 2002, said Matt Smyth, interim communications director for the Center for Politics.
Read More
Bert Ellis reflects on time as member of Board of Visitors
By Cecilia Mould | 4 hours agoWhile Ellis entered the Board with certain priorities in mind, he said that most had not been accomplished during his term, without a majority of Youngkin appointees on the Board.
Visa status restored for one international student and two recent University graduates
By Jackie Bond | YesterdayAccording to a statement from University Spokesperson Bethanie Glover, the University learned of the visa terminations of the current student and two alumni April 4
Students react to President Ryan signing national letter defending higher education
By Brendon Bordwine | 2 days agoWhile some students praised the move as a stand for academic freedom, others questioned its impact amid recent DEI rollbacks and safety concerns
