Election forecasters more precisely predicted the outcome of the election this year than in 2000, according to the Chronicle of Higher Education.
In September, political scientists offered seven predictions at the annual meeting of the American Political Scientist Association. Of those seven predictions, four fell within 2.5 percentage points of President Bush's actual popular-vote share of 51.6 percent, according to the Chronicle.
The political scientists are not necessarily concerned with which candidate will win, the Chronicle said. Rather, their focus is to predict each candidate's share of the popular vote.
The Chronicle said the equation the political scientists use to generate an estimate is derived from variables such as consumer confidence, unemployment rates and pre-convention polls.
Closer to home, Politics Prof. Larry J. Sabato said the Center for Politics accurately predicted 532 out of 539 races, which is 98.6 percent accurate. In 2000, the center was 94 percent correct.
"I am very pleased with my team," Sabato said. "We learn over time, and we learn from our mistakes."
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