FOR THE past three years the U.S. Senate has been a black hole for President Bush and Senate Republicans, gobbling up everything from judicial nominees to comprehensive energy legislation. However, last Tuesday the Republicans scored a senatorial hat trick, winning all but one of the competitive Senate races and boosting their ranks from 51 to 55. In addition, John Thune booted the face of the Democratic Party in the Senate, Minority Leader Tom Daschle, out of the halls of Congress after an 18-year stint as the thorn in the side of the Republicans. More important than Daschle's defeat is the ideological shift in the Senate, the biggest since the GOP seized control in 1994, and one which will allow President Bush to push through judicial nominees and a legislative agenda in the 109th Congress.
Since the end of World War II, Democrats have effectively dominated the Senate, wielding control in 21 of the last 30 sessions of Congress. Now the Republicans find themselves with 55 senators and control of the White House, a feat last accomplished under Herbert Hoover.
One of the biggest problems Republicans faced with their previous slim majority was Daschle-led filibusters on both judicial nominees and legislation. While Republicans are still five senators shy of a filibuster-proof majority, several factors should help stymie future use of the legislative procedure. Republicans' past successes reaching across the aisle, albeit on an issue-by-issue basis, demonstrate that it isn't impossible to garner the magic number of 60 needed to "bust" a filibuster. A good example is Senator Mary Landrieu, D-La., who voted for consideration of drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, but who otherwise wouldn't be caught dead voting for any White House initiative.
Bipartisanship in the Senate, however, is only part of the equation. The same obstructionism that garnered Sen. Daschle so many supporters is what ultimately led to his downfall. John Thune's campaign successfully portrayed Daschle obstructionism as the reason Bush couldn't get his legislative agenda out of second gear. Woe to the Senate Democrat up for re-election in '06 who attempts to filibuster a judicial nominee or Bush-backed legislation.
Another problem Senate Republicans hope last Tuesday solved was repeated attempts by moderate Republicans to constrain the GOP leadership's agenda. Moderates like John McCain and Lincoln Chafee knew their yea votes were desperately needed to achieve a majority on virtually any issue and extracted as many concessions as they could. Now, with a 55-45 (Jim Jeffords, an independent, tends to vote with the Democrats) margin, the Republican leadership can essentially ignore threats from moderate Republicans and still push through judicial nominees and other legislation.
The most heartening Senate revelation for the Bush administration is not the new 55-45 majority, but the fresh faces among those 55 senators. To describe incoming Sens. Richard Burr, R-N.C., Mel Martinez, R-Fla., David Vitter, R-La. and John Thune, R-S.D., as loyal Bush lieutenants would be an understatement. Burr and Vitter both voted with the White House an overwhelming amount of the time during their respective stints in the House. Martinez is a former HUD Secretary for Bush, and Thune owes his victory to massive fundraising efforts and support from Bush, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist and other top Republicans. Those four, along with über-conservative Sen.-elect Tom Coburn, R-Okla., indicate that Bush won't hesitate on Social Security reform, conservative judicial nominees and other hot-button issues.
Democrats and others hoping for a short GOP reign in the Senate may be sorely disappointed. Although historically the party of the White House tends to lose seats in Congress in midterm elections, especially in second terms, the increasingly conservative South and Great Plains could prevent a Democratic takeover. Up for re-election in 2006 are Kent Conrad, D-N.D., and Ben Nelson, D-Neb., both from states Bush carried by 25 points or more one week ago. Even the seat of Florida's Bill Nelson, D-Fla., also up for another term in 2006, has to be in jeopardy. With a newly-elected Republican senator from Florida in Martinez, a healthy 5-point margin in the presidential election and his popular (70 percent approval rating) brother Jeb up for re-election, look for Bush and Karl Rove to target that race as well.
The exact direction of the 109 Congress remains muddled. What is clear, however, is that the Senate will have to deal with contentious issues such as social security, health care and the possibility of one or more Supreme Court vacancies. But with a net loss of four seats and the defeat of their leader Tom Daschle, Senate Democrats would be best to realize, and the quicker the better, that their power on Capitol Hill is dramatically less than it was seven days ago.
Joe Schilling's column appears Tuesdays in The Cavalier Daily. He can be reached at jschilling@cavalierdaily.com.
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