RICHMOND -- IN A RACE that was thought to be a statistical dead heat up until the time the polls closed, the results proved to be quite surprising -- a sound defeat of the top of the ticket for the Republicans, a victory for the Republican lieutenant governor candidate and a possible recount mess for the attorney general position. This just goes to show that in politics, anything goes.
Attorney General Jerry Kilgore lost to Democratic opponent Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine by five points, a margin greater than indicated in the polls leading up to the election. A recent Mason-Dixon poll taken on Nov. 4, the last conducted before the election, showed Kaine leading Kilgore 45 to 44 percentage points, with afour percent margin of error.
Kaine's victory came as a surprise to some, but some underlying factors that only hindsight can identify played a significant role. Ann Petera, RNC Committeewoman for Virginia and the Director of Administration in the Attorney General's office, indicated in an interview following the release of the election results that Kilgore lost in part because he went negative too early. She stated, "I think the negative campaigning got ratcheted up too far too fast, and I've heard that all day today at the polls. I worked polls in James City County for 12 hours, and I heard it."
Petera also suggested that Kaine rode on Gov. Mark Warner's coattails. Warner, who has approval ratings near 70 percent, "campaigned vigorously" for Kaine. Petera observed, "A very, very popular incumbent Democratic governor used the power of his office to help deliver at least one of the offices for his party."
Some argue that President Bush and the Republican Party's recent troubles in many facets (CIA leak, the war in Iraq, Harriet Miers' botched nomination) impacted Kilgore in a negative way. Pres. Bush's influence on the race was, in my estimation, minimal at best. Some speculated that Kilgore purposely distanced himself from Bush for fear of having the president as an albatross around his neck. Kilgore didn't appear with Bush on a few occasions, one of which he wasn't invited to (it was a policy speech). However, he did share the stage with him on election eve at the Richmond Airport. Bush received a warm welcome, and he really energized his base. I was present at this event, and judging by crowd reaction, his visit left supporters charged up to campaign for the last 24 hours, not downtrodden. Swing voters may have been affected by Bush's recent low approval ratings, but I suspect that Kilgore and his campaign made a more sizeable impression.
Besides the unexpected Kaine surge, the most baffling element of the race was the split in the ticket. Voters elected Democratic candidate Tim Kaine, but then voted for Republicans Bill Bolling and Bob McDonnell. Petera attributed this to Warner's strong support of attorney general candidate Creigh Deeds and lack of campaigning for Leslie Byrne, who lost to Bolling. The votes from the attorney general's results are, by law, can be recounted in the coming days, as the vote count is within a one percent margin with McDonnell in the lead at the time of publication.
Many saw the outcome of this election season as having implications that extended beyond this year and this state. Some viewed the race as an indicator of future voting trends in Virginia and even other states -- a bellwether for the 2006-midterm elections -- and possibly a clue into the success of two presidential contenders in 2008. Virginia is often seen as a representative voting pattern for other states, and a change in the demographics in this could indicate a shift in voting trends in other areas of the country. This spells trouble for the Republicans, who must regain their footing despite gubernatorial losses in Virginia and New Jersey.
The overall message of the election? Well, it's a mixed bag. With a Republican winning one of the positions and possibly a second, all of us are left scratching our heads as to how this exactly came to fruition. While Republicans can relish in this victory, they need to take stock and reevaluate their political strategy in order to gain back some of their lost ground. Petera gave some sage advice: "People really want to hear you campaign about what you are for rather than what the other person is for. You need to state your case, what you're going to do, how you're going to manage the state, how you're going to make it a better place to live, work, and raise a family, not how the other guy is going to do something you don't like." Allen stated that these were "not easy times," but that even though "elections may come and go, principles endure." Principles endure only if a messenger communicates them effectively and they are well-received by the voters.
Whitney Blake is a Cavalier Daily associate editor. She can be reached at wblake@cavalierdaily.com.
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