In a hotly contested election season, Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball election forecasting Web site proved very accurate in predicting the results of the 2006 midterm elections. Sabato's Crystal Ball projects the outcomes of House, Senate, gubernatorial and presidential races nationwide.
This year's forecast was exceptionally precise. The site correctly predicted Democrats to gain six seats in the Senate and 29 seats in the House of Representatives. The Crystal Ball was only off by one governor's race, projecting a gain of seven governors for the Democrats, while the real gain was six.
On a seat-by-seat basis for the 2006 midterm elections, the site accurately predicted 97 percent of the gubernatorial races, 100 percent of Senate races and 96 percent of House races.
"It's true. I read it for prophetic insight," Politics Prof. James Ceaser said referring to Sabato's Crystal Ball Web site.
Sabato said the Crystal Ball began in 2002 with the intent of getting people, particularly students, involved in the election process. Compiling such public predictions is not without risk, however.
"You do put your reputation a little bit on the line ... I commend them for doing that," Ceaser said.
The site is a collaborative effort between Sabato, Senior Editor Matt Smyth and House Editor David Wasserman.
"The Crystal Ball is one of many research projects focused on political engagement and civic participation," said Ken Stroupe, chief of staff at the Center for Politics.
Stroupe highlighted the Center's civic education and use by the media, noting that the Crystal Ball currently has about 15,000 subscribers.
Sabato stressed the importance of hard work in the process of predicting the election outcomes.
"We work daily to keep up with every district in every state ... politics never stops," Sabato said. "You can't just come in October expecting to make predictions for November ... [the process starts] January two years earlier."
Sabato said the most important factor in forecasting results is a "sixth sense for politics."
Other members of the politics department are impressed with the accuracy of the Crystal Ball.
"[Sabato's] a very good political analyst and the only one with a crystal ball," Ceaser said.
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