A new demographic study by the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service investigating the implementation of federal health reform found that half a million more Virginians will be eligible for Medicaid coverage by the year 2014. This will mean that nearly one-fifth of Virginia's population will be eligible for Medicaid by the time of the bill's implementation.
The study, conducted by Dustin Cable, the Cooper Center's resident policy associate, was prompted by the federal government's passage of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act in March. One of the most significant impacts of the reform bill is the federal mandate that all states increase their Medicare coverage by covering citizens younger than the age of 65 with incomes below 133 percent of the federal poverty line. Current coverage extends to those whose income is less than 100 percent of the federal poverty line.
This expanded coverage, which will offer aid to about 464,000 newly eligible individuals, opens Medicaid to a wider demographic of young people. According to the report, half of the newly eligible population will be younger than 30 years old.
In the report, Cable listed the high rate of eligibility within the younger demographic as key to one of the "unique insights" of the study. The report noted that although the majority of Medicaid enrollees in Virginia are children and parents, they constitute the lower cost to the commonwealth, while a high percentage of Medicaid costs come from older or disabled enrollees.
The younger demographic also may contribute to the fact that of the 464,000 individuals expected to be eligible for Medicaid, only between 240,000 and 340,000 individuals are predicted to actually enroll into the program. This increase in enrollment could reduce the total number of uninsured Virginians by up to 21 percent. According to the report, because the younger demographic tends to be healthier than the older demographic, they are less likely to seek out medical assistance. The study also pointed out that whether the newly eligible individual currently has health insurance will be a major factor in whether he will enroll in Medicaid.
The study, however, reported that if the economic downturn continues to persist until the implementation of the bill, there may be a higher percentage of enrollment than originally estimated.
Cable emphasized that the uniqueness of the report is that it not only encompasses the "demographic characteristics of the newly eligible population" but also the "local analysis for every county and our synthetic estimates for the number of newly eligible people for each county." The study found that newly eligible populations are concentrated around Virginia's major urban areas, southwest, and southside Virginia.
Knowing where the newly eligible populations are clustered can be important for making policy decisions and targeting outreach programs.
"Charlottesville is expected to have a significant increase in the newly eligible," Cable said, citing the graduate student population as one of the factors in the increase. "Charlottesville has a high poverty population as well that will be affected."
Terance Rephann, regional economist at the Cooper Center, noted that the increase in Medicaid coverage could affect the local economy as people change their spending habits to local services.
"When people change their spending, they spend on a variety of goods and services ... out of the state," Rephann said. "When they change their consumption patterns to local goods and services, that could have a stimulative effect on the state."
Cable noted that the study is just the groundwork for making informed policy decisions about the bill's implementation.
"Our goal and our aim is to take that first step of how many people will be eligible, how many people will enroll, and from there, we can have a more informed discussion about cost and its implications," Cable said.
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