Politics Prof. Larry Sabato released his annual "Crystal Ball" political forecast Thursday morning, predicting that Republicans will make substantial gains during the upcoming midterm elections. These predictions include a GOP takeover of the House of Representatives, along with a near-takeover of the Senate this November.
"Democrats are seen as having over-promised and under-delivered," Sabato said in a video interview with CBS News.
These public expectations and opinions about Democratic policies have had a large impact on the political climate, said Isaac Wood, communications director for the Center of Politics and a former Cavalier Daily opinion columnist.
"The time's really run out for the economy to improve," Wood said, noting that citizens have become increasingly displeased with the Obama administration's handling of the economy and national healthcare initiative. "People are going to say, 'Well, they invested all this energy into something [the healthcare plan] that turned out to be unpopular and a mess and they should have invested that energy into trying to turn around the economy.'"
Sabato based his predictions upon an evaluation of Obama's current approval rating in conjunction with various pre-election polls.
A number of other factors distinguish this election year from some previous ones. For example, it is likely to have a very different voter turnout from a presidential election. In general, midterm elections garner about a 40-percent turnout, while the 2008 election drew a 63-percent turnout.
Sabato also weighed in on the Tea Party's impact, noting that although they may not have selected the strongest candidates in every race, the surge of energy they have brought to the conservative cause has been a strong, positive force for the Republican Party.
Congressman Tom Perriello, D-Charlottesville - a freshman incumbent on the ballot with State Sen. Robert Hurt, R-Danville and independent candidate Jeffrey Clark - is on the negative end of Sabato's predictions.
Nevertheless, Jessica Barba, communications director for Perriello's campaign, said she believes the Perriello campaign will be able to overcome lower midterm election voter turnout with the "largest grassroots effort that the district has ever seen."
Wood, however, said for Perriello to win, he will have to demonstrate his independence from the national party.
"The national atmosphere is in play here," Wood said. "People have a negative view of Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama. He [Perriello] can't allow himself to be tied too closely."
On the other hand, Hurt could benefit from this change in atmosphere. Hurt campaign spokesperson Amanda Henneberg stated in an e-mail that the Republican voters are excited about Hurt's message of limiting government, showing fiscal responsibility and promoting policies that would help create jobs.
"Our campaign will continue to spread our message throughout Central and Southside Virginia to ensure that voters are presented with a clear choice between these two very distinct candidates," Henneberg stated.
The Crystal Ball has been noted for the very high accuracy of its predictions, having achieved 100 percent accuracy in predicting the 2008 senatorial and gubernatorial races.
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