Halfway through Bill Clinton's first term in the Oval Office, journalists and pundits alike began predicting that he would become a one-term president. Still, two years later in 1996, Clinton managed a comfortable reelection.
As of late, critics have begun doing the same regarding President Obama. Politico Chief Political Columnist Roger Simon wrote Aug. 17 that Obama "might be forced to pull a Palin and resign before his first term is over." Others have argued that Obama should take himself out of the running for a second term. In an Washington Post op-ed, Douglas Schoen and Patrick Caddell argued that Obama can only follow through on his policy goals by nominally removing himself from the 2012 race, which would remove political divisions.
But University Prof. Larry Sabato and Emory University Politics Prof. Alan Abramowitz recently warned against entering "the irony zone" by making hasty conclusions about Obama's odds of reelection.
"If you look at the number of seats that are picked up by one [state] or another, and then you chart the results of the next election, there's not so much in common there," said Isaac Wood, communications director for the Center of Politics and former Cavalier Daily columnist.
As in 1994, this year's midterm elections saw a transfer of power from the Democratic to the Republican party in Congress. Still, Wood noted that such an unfavorable political climate does not necessarily indicate that the incumbent Democrat has lost all approval among the American public.
"Both Democratic presidents were highly heralded for their political skill, but their party had big midterm losses just two years into their presidency," Wood said.
A 1994 Gallup poll before the midterm elections showed that only 38 percent of Americans believed that Clinton deserved reelection. Nevertheless, he coasted to a second term with 49.2 percent of the popular vote and 379 electoral votes, compared to Republican candidate Bob Dole's 40.7 percent and 159 electoral votes.
According to a POLITICO Power and the People poll released Monday, only 26 percent of the public believes Obama will be elected for a second term. With two years before the election, though, it is difficult to make any conclusive statements.
"There's a lot of time left, and historical similarities aside, there's only so much that can be drawn from one presidency," Wood said.
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