Democrat Tim Kaine has not lost any ground to Republican George Allen in the state's U.S. Senate race, despite President Obama's falling approval ratings, according to a poll conducted by Quinnipiac University released this month.
The poll indicates that the two candidates "remain in a statistical dead heat more than 13 months before the voting."
Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics, said in an email he thinks the campaign for president will have a significant effect on this Senate race.
"Neither the Kaine campaign nor the Allen campaign is isolated from the top of the ticket [or their party's Presidential nominee], whatever a poll may show 14 months ahead of the election," Sabato said. "Obama voters will choose Kaine; the Republican nominee's backers will choose Allen."
The major issue in the national election will be the economy, Sabato said.
"Kaine is joined at the hip to Obama," he said. "Both candidates will attack one another on several dozen issues and their records in elective office ... but this is an election primarily about jobs and the economy."
Both campaigns are attempting to address the economy as a primary issue.
Allen campaign spokesperson Bill Riggs said jobs and energy were among the most important issues in the campaign.
"The best way to generate new revenues is new jobs, not higher taxes," Riggs said. "[Kaine's] policies have effectively been Washington's policy."
Kaine campaign spokesperson Brandi Hoffine also described the economy as a major issue, focusing especially on Kaine's record of job creation while governor.
"As governor during the worst economy in 70 years, Kaine made significant, targeted budget cuts while working across the political aisle to protect Virginia's standing as the 'Best State for Business,'" Hoffine said in an email.
Sabato said Obama's falling poll numbers have given Allen a boost.
"Given Allen's defeat in 2006 for reelection to the Senate, you could argue the primary reason why he is competitive at all is Obama's falling ratings," Sabato said. "If Obama were popular and cruising toward a second term, Kaine would probably win handily."
President Obama's falling approval ratings among independents in Virginia, however, do not seem to be having an impact on Kaine's numbers among independents in the state.
While the poll stated, "Obama's job approval is plummeting among independent voters, who disapprove 62-29 percent, compared to a 54-41 percent disapproval June 30," Kaine's poll numbers among independents increased 4 percent between the June and September Quinnipiac polls, though the race still remains close.
"What [the poll] showed us is it confirmed what we already knew," Riggs said. "This is going to be a close race"
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