Article 45 of Hong Kong Basic Law explicitly guarantees Universal suffrage, but this right is in jeopardy because of other legislative barriers. The clause in Article 45 leaves leeway regarding the selection of the chief executive “through consultations held locally.” The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress of China, by a decision in 2007, explicitly promised universal suffrage in the 2017 election of the chief executive. However, the decision didn’t specify the composition of the nomination committee, which would nominate a group of eligible candidates. The decision also stated that the Standing Committee would have a final say in approving any alteration in election rules. Therefore, if the plan submitted by the current Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying does not get approval from more than two-thirds of the Legislative Council members, the original election rule would be applied, making universal suffrage null and void, and the selection committee alone would elect the chief executive.
Leung’s proposal to Beijing reserves the exclusive right of nomination to an existing 1200-member committee, and it only offers to increase the size of the committee from 1200 to 1600 at most. The committee, composed of mostly pro-Beijing business-owners who cannot possibly be representative of the Hong Kong citizens living in Victoria Peak and Yau Ma Tei, will only offer the Hong Kong citizens up to three candidates from which to choose the chief executive.
The Occupy Central movement in China is a courageous act against the prerogative of Beijing and a justifiable expression of frustration over economic inequality, but it is not making any progress.
Anti-Beijing protests have long been a means for Hong Kong citizens to express concern for the demise of democratic development in Hong Kong, especially in 2014 when public confidence in Leung’s administration is decreasing, given its pro-Beijing attitude that has been clear ever since his inauguration. Also, according to a Public Opinion Programme survey carried out by the University of Hong Kong, people’s confidence in the “One Country, Two System” ideal has been consistently decreasing since 2013.
However, Beijing is not solely to blame. Hong Kong has long suffered from serious social injustice and economic inequality and has placed a great burden on the under-educated lower-class people, who struggle to live in the “cage home,” a type of residence that can only fit in one bunk-bed and is surrounded by a metal cage. The influx of mainland visitors has only benefited certain business owners, while inconveniencing ordinary citizens. These underrepresented people, who don’t have a say in the nomination committee, have not benefited from the pro-Beijing policy. Their dissatisfaction with Leung’s administration has led to their active participation in the 2014 protests.
Sadly, the chance of success for the protest movement is very small. Beijing is reasonably concerned that any compromise might affect the internal stability of the mainland. The current Chinese government’s uncompromising attitude toward any political liberation adds to Beijing’s hardline stand. Pan-democracy camp is in an unfavorable position to negotiate with the government. The movement lacks the support of the business-minded group, which has benefited a lot from its close relationship with Beijing. Big corporations have issued announcements condemning the movement, and the falling of the Dow Jones and Hang Seng index has caused tension among the investors.
Ironically, largely due to the unbalanced coverage by controlled media, many mainlanders are uninterested in or even critical of this movement, criticizing participants as brainwashed by the western democracy propaganda. Indeed, the protest has very complex origins, and it can never be easily concluded that universal suffrage will be the optimal choice for Hong Kong. However, the efforts of protesters are highly respectable, their proposal justifiable and their methods of expression reasonable. The debatable nature of universal suffrage and unlikeliness of their success does not change the fact that this is a vivid example of robust political discussion and active civic participation.
After a video of a demonstrator being beaten by the police was leaked in early October, Leung offered to re-open the discussion with students, but now it seems that Leung’s resignation would be one possible way out of the impasse, which might allow for negotiation about universal suffrage after 2017. The succeeding chief executive, who would be restrained by the public criticism of Leung, could negotiate with the pro-democracy and pro-local force when there is less tension and hostility between the two sides. Demise of the political democracy of Hong Kong is inevitable, under increasing pressure from Beijing. However, thanks to the effort and courage of the protestors, it won’t go as smoothly and fast as Beijing wants.
Sasha Wan is a Viewpoint Writer.
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