After four games against low and mid-major opponents, Virginia will travel to White Sulphur Springs, W.Va. this weekend for the Greenbrier Tip-Off, playing Friday against Northwestern and Sunday against Butler. Held at The Greenbrier resort, the matchups will be the first real tests of the year for the Cavaliers, who are currently receiving votes just outside of the top 25 following blowout wins over Rider, NC Central, Hampton and Marshall.
On paper, Virginia will be favored to win both games. But its comparatively easy schedule through the first two weeks of the season does provide some cause for worry. Virginia has not played a high-major opponent yet. All but three teams ranked in the top 25 have faced at least one high-major opponent — some have even faced more. Those early-season tests age well on resumes, and the Cavaliers’ lack of any marquee wins, or even narrow losses, thus far points to an absence of data needed to make any concrete judgements on just how good the team can be.
Despite its easier early schedule, Virginia has still looked the part of a top-40 or even a top-30 program through two weeks. The offensive rebounding, interior defense and volume shooting, especially, have all looked exceptional against less talented and athletic teams. The pace of play, a patent of Odom’s brand of basketball, has looked to be both effective and adaptable in forcing the four opponents so far to play at a Cavalier tempo.
“I’ve been pretty pleased with where the guys are in terms of the pace,” Odom said. “We’re not going to be the fastest team in the country, and a lot of that is due to the fact that we press and play full-court defense.”
How, though, will the team’s strengths hold up against bigger, more athletic teams, and what questions are going to be answered this weekend?
The Wildcats eked out a win over a mediocre DePaul, and the Bulldogs lost an equally tight game to SMU. Both of the Cavaliers’ opponents are middle-of-the-pack in their respective conferences but have high-level athletes and power-conference discipline that might challenge Coach Ryan Odom’s promising squad.
In their Friday game against Northwestern, the Cavaliers will face the best individual player they have seen thus far in senior forward Nick Martinelli. Martinelli is a more-than-competent scorer off the dribble who averaged more than 20 points a game last year and is currently on pace to do the same on slightly better efficiency. Freshman forward Thijs De Ridder will likely take that assignment, while freshman center Johann Grünloh will be dealing with the Wildcats’ second-best player — a bruising big man in junior forward Arrinten Page, a USC transfer whose praises Odom sang as a versatile offensive threat.
“I’ve been really impressed with Northwestern overall,” Odom said. “The balance, their attack on offense and certainly a very stout defense. Their switching is tough to play against, their post double [teams] are tough to play against. They’re just very urgent on each possession.”
The Wildcats bring a strong offense that does not turn the ball over often, shoots the ball well and plays disciplined defense on the other end. The question Virginia will be looking to answer is how big of a difference-maker its backcourt can be if its star European frontcourt has its hands full, as well as how much its rebounding can thrive against a smaller team like Northwestern. The Blue Demons logged 16 offensive rebounds against the small-ball Wildcats, and the Cavaliers are the second-best offensive rebounding team in the country so far — against lower-tier opponents, yes, but athleticism and hustle translate regardless of opponent, and Virginia gets rebounds from every position on the court.
Butler, in turn, will offer a different look for Odom’s team. The Bulldogs are a solid squad in terms of rebounding — especially on the offensive glass — and equally good at limiting opposition three-point attempts. Teams are shooting an average of 28.8 percent from three against them, while not getting many opportunities at the line.
The Bulldogs do not have the same star power as the Wildcats with Martinelli and Page, but junior guard Finley Bizjack and graduate forward Michael Ajayi are both riding strong starts this season. They are both strong volume shooters — Bizjack made over 42 percent of his three pointers last season and has made nearly 48 percent this year — and the 6-foot-7 Ajayi is averaging 11.8 rebounds per game alongside his 14.8 points. Ajayi’s strength on the boards will present an interesting question for Odom’s Cavaliers, who have yet to face a non-center capable of dominating the glass against high-level opponents.
Through both games, Virginia will hope to force opponents to enter their sets late into the shot clock using its full court pressure. Both Northwestern and Butler will be the smaller team in the ballroom, but how the top-shelf rebounding will scale against high-major athleticism is probably the biggest question mark this weekend.
Offensively, those second chance points will be huge, and the Cavaliers will be hoping for strong shooting performances from their backcourt, while also seeing how De Ridder — who has been exploiting mismatches against smaller teams — will fare against Martinelli and Ajayi.
The biggest question against both teams — and one that came up after a slow first half against Rider and an equally imperfect second period against Marshall — is whether Virginia can build and maintain leads cleanly. After a neck-and-neck second half against the Thundering Herd, Grünloh noted in a matter-of-fact tone the importance of playing the full 40 minutes and finishing matches strong.
“We [have] struggled a little bit with finishing games,” Grünloh said. “I think [power conference teams] will punish us, and we got to continue working on that.”
The Cavaliers’ full-court pressure should be tested this weekend against two disciplined offenses with top-tier athleticism. It has been very effective thus far, forcing some turnovers but more importantly making opponents enter their sets and actions later into the shot clock. Asked how he thinks the pressure has looked heading into his first two tests of the season, Odom said he has been happy with how it has looked, but that continued work should only yield more results.
“We need it to be a strong suit for us,” Odom said. “The goal, again, is not to force turnovers … But I do like that pressure, I like the depth … that we have, and we have just got to start with it and try to keep improving it.”
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