Virginia has beaten Virginia Tech in football just twice this century. That is going to change.
2025 is one of the ultra-rare seasons in which the Cavaliers are lightyears better than the Hokies. Virginia is ranked No. 19, firmly in the running for an ACC Championship game appearance. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech has a losing record in every category — overall, in ACC play, at home and on the road. This upcoming Commonwealth Cup is primed for a Cavalier victory.
After all, Virginia is already winning off the football field.
College football, simply put, has become an arms race — and when compared to the Hokies, Virginia is clearly winning. But how did we get to this point, with the Cavaliers outperforming their rival on and off the field?
While Virginia has risen to its best season since 2019, Virginia Tech has cratered to historic lows. The day after a blowout home loss to Old Dominion Sept. 13, they fired Coach Brent Pry, who, like Elliott, was hired in late 2021. Now the once-respectable Hokies are 11th in the ACC and will finish with a losing record — punctuated by a pending loss to the Cavaliers.
The upcoming Commonwealth Cup victory was all but sealed a year ago, when Virginia began the current chapter of its development. Dozens of talents from the transfer portal joined the Cavaliers, the front office developed into its current impressive form and this football program began the process of becoming a contender.
Elliott’s stellar season could not have come at a better time. The current cycle of programs looking for a new head coach might be one of the most competitive of all time. Several historically great programs are fighting to secure the best candidates.
Virginia Tech made their choice Monday in former Penn State Coach James Franklin, which will surely help, but that is a future solution to a present problem. Meanwhile, it is an undeniable fact that the Cavaliers are on a sustainable upward trajectory.
The same cannot be said for Virginia Tech because their great big problem is a financial one. The Hokies’ Board of Visitors knew this and approved a proposal for a $229 million dollar budget increase for athletics over the next four years. There’s just one problem. Unlike Virginia, Virginia Tech has not generated successful mass funding efforts.
That hypothetical money from the enormous budget proposal is supposed to come from a $100 increase to student fees — students already pay north of $200 for season tickets — as well as “institutional support,” “bridge funding” and "philanthropy." To date, the Hokies have not generated much of anything from those latter two categories and their proposal appears shaky at best.
Virginia Tech is not receiving multi-million dollar donations for non-revenue sports — a fact punctuated by their overemphasis on football funding. How is a program supposed to rebuild without a treasure chest of financial investment?
Money wins, and the Cavaliers have taken theirs and created an NFL-style operation. The Hokies clearly have less money, otherwise they would have done the same. Successful fundraising gives a program money for a great big haul of talented players in the transfer portal.
NIL has become an integral part of the NCAA landscape. Programs that understand this and use it well — like the Cavaliers — will have a higher likelihood of success than those that do not, like the Hokies.
The effect of this financial disparity shows on the playing field. As Virginia’s bevy of transfer portal stars such as graduate quarterback Chandler Morris or graduate defensive lineman Mitchell Melton dominate on Saturdays, the Hokies sputter.
Look no further than the fact that senior cornerback Mansoor Delane left Virginia Tech for LSU this past offseason and is now on a fast track to being named First Team All-American. Delane has a top-100 NIL value evaluation, a bill that the Tigers were happy to foot.
The importance of finances extends beyond football. In the grand scheme of collegiate athletics, Virginia is eviscerating its rival to the southwest. In the overall Commonwealth Clash, the Cavaliers are undefeated so far this year. But some fans will not be satisfied until the football team does its part and finally defeats Virginia Tech.
This year’s rivalry matchup may end on the field in Charlottesville Nov. 29, but it began at the start of last offseason, when Virginia beefed up on transfer talent and the Hokies failed to replace outgoing stars.
When the Cavaliers finally slay Virginia Tech, and move onto a shiny bowl game while the Hokies slump into a postseason-less abyss, remember that the result — a Virginia victory — was not made on one cold November afternoon. It was made months ago. That sweet result, though, will be sealed in a day to remember as the Commonwealth Cup will come home to Grounds for the first time since 2019.
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