Editor’s note: This article is co-authored by Xander Tilock, a senior sports writer for The Cavalier Daily and Martin Heintzelman, a Duke senior and the sports managing editor for The Chronicle.
Over halfway through the women’s basketball regular season, the fate of several teams has already been determined. ACC foes Florida State and Boston College have lost over two thirds of their games and have turned in mediocre seasons. Elsewhere in the conference, Louisville leads the ACC standings. But most of the ACC is somewhere in the middle — with both marquee wins and puzzling defeats — whether due to a losing streak or two, or some chronic weakness.
Virginia and Duke headline the top of a ‘middle of the pack’ section. The Blue Devils are in second place while the Cavaliers are in third, but both teams have had wildly different results to date. The one commonality, though, is that they will face off Thursday night in Durham, N.C. — and a win would be a massive boost to their NCAA Tournament hopes. Below, a beat writer covering each program discusses the results and trajectory of Virginia and Duke.
What is your final score prediction?
Xander Tilock, Senior Writer, The Cavalier Daily: Virginia 54, Duke 65
Martin Heintzelman, Sports Managing Editor, The Chronicle: Virginia 52, Duke 70
What is the rundown for each team’s season so far?
XT: Virginia had an unimpressive nonconference schedule. Before the new year, Virginia only faced four Power Four opponents — going 2-2 in those contests. The rest of the Cavaliers’ non-ACC games were against mid-major opponents, including a puzzling home loss to UMBC. In ACC play, though, Virginia sprinted out to a 5-0 start in conference action before losing a heartbreaker to Syracuse. There are a lot of positives, such as leading the nation with 8.4 blocks per game, but also room for improvement in terms of establishing a more consistent offense outside of junior guard Kymora Johnson.
MH: Duke played an extremely strong nonconference schedule. In some ways, that difficulty helped the Blue Devils — they got to play tough teams early, exposing their weaknesses and refining their strengths. At the same time, it meant that Duke started its season out with some bad losses. The Blue Devils entered the season with a No. 7 ranking in the AP Poll, before a series of defeats to teams including South Carolina, UCLA, West Virginia and South Florida knocked them out entirely. Since conference play started, though, Duke has turned things around. It is undefeated in ACC play, having recently completed a 2-0 weekend in California against California and Stanford. That said, the Blue Devils still have a lot to prove. To climb the rankings come March, they must keep winning, and winning big, in conference play.
Which individual has the most to prove Thursday?
XT: Coach Amaka Agugua-Hamilton needs a signature win in 2026, and this could be it. The significance is clear — in her first four seasons, Virginia is 6-22 against ranked teams and is 0-3 against Duke. It is imperative that the Cavaliers improve these records if they want to preserve NCAA Tournament hopes. Throughout Agugua-Hamilton’s tenure, Virginia has occasionally captured an upset win or two, but those ACC shockers need to turn into consistent victories to break an eight-year NCAA Tournament drought.
MH: I agree that the Cavalier coach likely has more riding on this game than anyone else, but from a Duke perspective, it’s sophomore guard Riley Nelson. She has taken over a starting slot since the beginning of ACC play, after junior combo guard Jadyn Donovan found herself in an offensive slump before suffering an injury. Nelson, thus far as a starter, has had some up-and-down games, scoring as many as 20 points, but at times posting none. With Donovan still likely out, another good scoring day could help solidify Nelson’s role down the stretch.
What needs to happen for each team to win?
XT: Virginia’s offense cannot sustain prolonged scoring droughts. Last time out against Syracuse, the Cavaliers were outscored 15-2 in the game’s final minutes, which turned a one-possession game into a 19-point home loss. Aside from the occasional late-game collapse, the defense largely plays its part — especially through an incredible 8.4 blocks per game. That defense is going to be tested, as four Blue Devil starters average double-digit points per game. Virginia cannot afford several minutes of scoring droughts against a Duke team with such diverse scoring. Another scorer must consistently step up alongside Johnson.
MH: Mostly, Duke needs to be itself to win this one. The Blue Devils are the better team on paper — they have a stronger resume coming into this matchup, and they’re undefeated against the Cavaliers in the last five meetings. That said, Duke has still struggled with consistency. The Blue Devils’ shots need to fall, and the defense needs to be up to Coach Kara Lawson’s demanding standard. As long as the squad from Durham plays its brand of basketball, limiting turnovers and getting into its offensive sets, this matchup is well within reach.
What does a win mean for each team’s future?
XT: A win proves that, for the time being, Virginia can hang with the ACC’s best. The Cavaliers only faced three Power Four teams with winning records this year. They have not faced the ACC’s giants — Duke, North Carolina, Louisville and Notre Dame — yet this season. The Cavaliers need to steal at least one win from that gauntlet, possibly two, to secure an NCAA Tournament bid.
MH: This will be another resume-builder for Duke in the sense that the Blue Devils will want to prove that they’re capable of winning the games they’re supposed to. Winning means that Duke can take care of business at home when the stakes aren’t life-or-death. A loss might indicate a backslide to the inconsistency that the Blue Devils struggled with early in the season.
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