The road to hell is paved with good intentions, but the road to Nashville, Tenn. — for No. 15 Virginia men’s basketball, at least — is paved with television deals.
For those wondering why the Cavaliers (21-3, 9-2 ACC) are playing a game versus Ohio State in mid-February, the answer is complicated, but it boils down to ACC scheduling, TV markets and the decision between playing one or multiple conference opponents twice.
“When the ACC and the television partners decided that we were going to stay at 18 [ACC games] … they wanted to give us more opportunities outside of the conference … to play some important games,” Coach Ryan Odom said Monday during media availability. “Then we found out, well, you’re not going to play one team in the ACC this year. For us, it’s Clemson.”
Odom and company were slated to play Virginia Tech and NC State twice, forgoing a matchup with Clemson. Now, the Tigers are ranked No. 20 in the nation and sit third in the ACC standings, a spot below Virginia. With a note of disdain in his voice, Odom acknowledged that the game would have been a good one.
Instead, the Cavaliers have a Valentine’s Day getaway with the Buckeyes (16-8, 8-6 Big Ten) in Nashville, Tenn. at Bridgestone Arena. In lieu of a marquee matchup with Clemson, Ohio State still represents a chance for a Quad 1 win.
It would be a quality Quad 1 win, at that — the Buckeyes are better than their record suggests. They play in a deep Big Ten — five of their six conference losses have come against Quad 1 teams, including two losses at the hands of No. 2 Michigan and another to No. 8 Illinois.
Ohio State sits sixth in the conference in points per game but frequently struggles on defense — the team ranks near the bottom of the Big Ten in points allowed, allowing over 75 points to the likes of Penn State, USC, Washington and Northwestern. Those are four teams below the Buckeyes in the Big Ten standings.
Nevertheless, Ohio State’s offense has kept it competitive on multiple occasions and features a variety of contributors. Senior guard Bruce Thornton is the Buckeyes’ greatest scoring threat. The four-year Ohio State starter leads the team with 19.3 points per game — he also paces the team in steals and places fourth in blocks.
His partner in crime is sophomore John Mobley Jr., the Buckeyes’ primary three-point threat. Though Ohio State does not rely on the three-point shot for the bulk of its scoring, the 6-foot-2 guard is a major threat from three, shooting 40 percent from beyond the arc and putting up several games with five or more threes made this season. Only graduate guard Jacari White is shooting above that percentage for Virginia over a significant sample size, posting a 45-percent mark from three.
In addition to Mobley Jr., junior forward Devin Royal and senior center Christoph Tilly will present Virginia with two-way challenges. Royal is a true threat inside and beyond the arc, sinking three-pointers frequently but also using his 6-foot-6 frame to create opportunities in the paint.
Tilly, a 7-footer hailing from Berlin, Germany, lacks the rim-protecting dominance of Virginia’s own 7-foot German Johann Grünloh but still serves as an imposing presence for Ohio State — like Grünloh, he shoots the occasional three-pointer and makes them often enough to force defenses to shift their focus.
The Cavaliers match up well with the Buckeyes on paper. Virginia’s offense is actually ranked slightly below Ohio State’s by KenPom — No. 30 and No. 22 in adjusted offensive efficiency, respectively. Defensively, though, the disparity is far more significant, and it swings in the Cavaliers’ favor — Virginia is No. 17 in adjusted defensive efficiency, but the Buckeyes are all the way down at No. 80, indicative of the defensive collapses that have defined their season at times.
In reality, though, the Cavaliers might not be playing up to their statistical pedigree. Virginia has matched up with a string of struggling ACC squads in recent weeks, completing the basement-dweller grand tour — after a narrow double-overtime win on the road versus Notre Dame, the Cavaliers picked up wins over Boston College, Pitt, Syracuse and Florida State.
Two of those wins came at John Paul Jones Arena, and Virginia did not struggle, handing Pitt and Syracuse double-digit losses. Wins against Boston College and Florida State — along with Notre Dame — came on the road, however, and the Cavaliers narrowly avoided suffering losses to three of the ACC’s worst teams.
Maybe those close games speak to the quality of the conference. It could also suggest that Virginia struggles away from home, where sellout crowds have greeted the Cavaliers all season. If this is the case, Quad 1 Ohio State presents a major challenge in an unfriendly venue. As Virginia prepares for the final stretch of ACC play — featuring more challenging opponents than recent weeks, ranging from No. 4 Duke to rematches with NC State and Virginia Tech — Saturday’s game serves as an opportunity to recalibrate against a quality opponent.
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