In June forecasters from storm centers all over the world predicted that this hurricane season would bring with it some of the worst hurricanes in decades.
This season may be particularly intense with the onset of La Niña -- the post-effect of El Niño -- which provides easterly winds conducive to the systems' formation. And as a result, the states along the Atlantic were bombarded with early warnings and evacuation strategies all in preparation for the "big one."
Despite predictions, this hurricane season started slowly, and Hurricane Floyd has been the only major system to affect the United States, said William Gray, Colorado State University hurricane forecaster.
"There is probably more rhetoric out there about the predicted severity of the seasons than there is wind in the actual hurricanes," Virginia State Climatologist Pat Michaels said.
According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, a normal Atlantic hurricane season consists of about nine or 10 tropical storms. Of these 10, five or six actually reach hurricane intensity, and two usually are strong enough to be categorized as major hurricanes (winds above 110 mph).
The 1998 Atlantic hurricane season concluded with a total of 14 tropical cycles, 10 reaching hurricane intensity with three major hurricanes, as reported by the National Weather Service.
The National Weather Service estimates that in the United States alone, the storms inflicted around $7.3 billion in damages, caused 23 fatalities and left several thousand injured.
Even though the 1999 season has been slow, with only one major hurricane so far, scientists stress that the season is far from over.
"People should not be lulled into thinking that because we've had a rather slow start to the season that the rest of the season will be equally peaceful," Gray said. "We need to keep in mind that even slow [hurricane] seasons can cause long term damage."
NOAA defines a hurricane, also called a tropical cyclone, as a severe tropical weather system with sustained winds of at least 74 mph. Typical hurricanes are about 300 miles wide, although they can vary considerably in size.
Once classified as a hurricane, the tropical cyclones are rated on a one to five scale based primarily on wind speed. The scale, formally known as the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, defines a category five as being the most severe, with winds reaching speeds above 155 mph.
Though many factors must be present to facilitate the formation of a tropical cyclone, NOAA lists three major components as absolutely necessary. First, there must be some type of preexisting disturbance (such as a cluster of thunderstorms). Calm upper level winds and an ocean temperature above 80 degrees Fahrenheit are also essential.
The warm water temperature is especially crucial, as it provides the hurricane with heat and energy throughout its life span. This year, La Niña provides some of that fuel behind the predicted hurricane surge.
La Niña brings easterly winds and warm Atlantic waters that make it more likely for hurricanes to form and stabilize. In a report issued this month, the American Meteorological Society determined that in the United States 20 times more damage-related costs are incurred in La Niña years versus El Niño years.
Because the necessary meteorological conditions are right, however, doesn't necessarily support the claim that an unusually high number of storms will occur.
"The frequency of tropical cyclones has been shown to increase during La Niña, but that doesn't mean it works every time," Michaels said.
"The correlation between the two is not that strong, and the costs of alarming people unnecessarily should be taken into consideration," he said.
He added that hurricane forecasts made early in the season can be notoriously inaccurate, and that efforts to improve prediction methods should be focused elsewhere.
The conditions in the Atlantic "are primed to encourage a great deal of hurricane formation for three months of every year, yet we're still seeing only average seasons," Michaels said. "The real question is, if the conditions are so ideal, why are there so few"
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