With the presidential primaries and the next century less than three months away, voters are
already beginning to consider the question of who will navigate the country through the next millennium.
Although it is still early on in the campaign process, eight presidential hopefuls - including a son of a former president, an ex-pro basketball player and a former prisoner of war - have begun stumping, debating and defining their missions.
Despite the array of candidates, some analysts say thisso far could be an election devoid of defining issues.
Because there are no hot issues at the moment, it remains to be seen what issues will come to the forefront in the general elections, said Scott Keeter, chairman of the Department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University.
"We are in very good economic times now and the frontrunners are very similar," Keeter said. "But we are a year away from the election and we don't know what the economy will do."
Other issues upon which candidates have taken stands or openly discussed include social security reform, gun control and youth crime, abortion and as always, the economy.
The Democrats
The two Democratic candidates, Vice President Al Gore and Bill Bradley, former senator and ex-basketball great, share many of the same values, but have very different strategies.
"There is not too much of a difference between Bill Bradley and Al Gore except for healthcare," said Katie Dunn Tenpas, assistant director of the Washington Semester Program of the University of Pennsylvania.
"Bill Bradley is more of a Democrat's Democrat. He is more willing to take risks" in creating new policy, Tenpas said.
She said Gore also tends to appeal more to Republican ideals, in that he is reluctant to completely change existing laws and standards.
But for now, Gore is the clear leader among democrats in polls.
According to an Oct. 29 Newsweek Poll of democratic voters, 40 percent supported Gore, while 25 percent supported Bradley.
This might be due to the fact that citizens often choose those already in office, especially when the economy is good - or it may have more to do with the fact that Gore is a better fundraiser, Tenpas said.
But some analysts are reluctant to count Bradley out of the race just yet.
"The Democrat side has become a fierce battle with Bill Bradley leading in the Northeast and Gore leading everywhere else. But the Northeast includes New Hampshire," said Larry J. Sabato, government and foreign affairs professor.
The New Hampshire primary takes place Feb. 1. Because it is the first primary it often sets the pace for the following primaries.
Tenpas said a candidate needs a lot of money to keep a campaign running smoothly and the "campaign that is better funded is Gore's."
Even though Gore has the edge on funding, she said he may have other issues, pointing to his "wimp factor."
Keeter echoed Tenpas' concerns for Gore's chance in the general election.
"Gore's performance in situations where he had to think on his feet has not been great ... he doesn't come through," he said.
Because the campaigns thus far have not focused on the issues, the debates and election may turn to personality and "Bush seems more interesting," he added
But in spite of the public's perception of Gore as dull, his incumbent status promises to be a major factor in the success of the campaign.
Although Gore, as vice president, was in the shadow of President Clinton's controversies last year, Keeter said this should not be a problem for his campaign.
"Clinton's problems are not why Gore is having problems," he said.
"There are so many parallels to 1988 when Bush ran after Reagan. There is skepticism about Al Gore, but he will be nominated for Democrat candidate," Tenpas said.
She also said that historically, vice presidents with presidential aspirations have has been treated well at the ballot box.
But with several months to go before the primaries even begin, Sabato said there is still room to maneuver in the race.
"It's too soon to predict the outcome of the races," he said. "The candidates are trying out the issues and techniques. This is pre-season, we won't know for awhile which issues will be important."
The Republicans
In terms of the number of candidates running, the Republican race proves a bit more complicated.
Currently, six candidates are running for the Republican Party nomination: Texas Gov. George W. Bush, Arizona Sen. John McCain, a prisoner of war during the Vietnam War, millionaire Steve Forbes, Alan Keyes, a black conservative candidate, Gary Bauer and Utah Sen. Orrin G. Hatch.
"On the Republican side, the field has been winnowed. There really have three serious candidates. George W. Bush, who is a mile ahead, John McCain and Steve Forbes at a distant third and this is entirely because of his enormous bank account," Sabato said.
But with Bush far and away the leading candidate, many are focusing more on the democratic nominations, which are not so clear cut.
In another Oct. 29 Newsweek poll of Republican voters, 63 percent supported George W. Bush
Also, many officials expect for the winnowing effect to continue to boost Bush's campaign during the primaries. The winnowing effect is when candidates drop out of the race because of their perception that a successful nomination is impossible.
"In the primaries George W. Bush has a huge advantage. [Elizabeth] Dole dropped out because George Bush has all the endorsements and the money," Tenpas said. "The only thing that hurts Bush is that he's the frontrunner."
But analysts said they expect that after Bush is nominated as the Republican candidate, his ratings will drop. Although it is commonplace for a candidate's ratings to drop after the primaries, it will only hurt Bush's campaign, because the media will highlight his drop in the ratings.
The Reform Party
Although traditional partisan politics have limited the White House to Republicans and Democrats, third party candidates often serve to take votes away from one candidate and help put the other in office.
"It's always interesting when a third party runs," Tenpas said.
Presidential candidate Pat Buchanan recently left the GOP and officially joined the Reform Party.
However, analysts have not reached a clear agreement on whether Buchanan would detract votes from Gore or Bush in the General elections.
Other Reform Party hopefuls include Ross Perot and Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura, who have not officially declared.
"I don't think they could ever win," Tenpas said. "Buchanan would get less than 10 percent of the vote, but would take votes away from George W.," she said.
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