The two top Republican presidential candidates will be holding their breath when South Carolinians vote in this Saturday's primary elections.
Polls have Sen. John McCain (R-Arizona) and Gov. George W. Bush (R-Texas) in a dead heat in a primary observers say is crucial to both candidates' campaigns in a surprisingly competitive nomination race.
"It's becoming more and more important just because the press is paying more and more attention to it," said Darryl West, professor of politics at Brown University.
A win of 10 points or more by either candidate very well could knock out the other, said Robert Holsworth, political science professor at Virginia Commonwealth University.
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A Los Angeles Times poll shows Bush with a statistically insignificant 42 to 40 percent lead over McCain in South Carolina. McCain had been down 20 points to Bush before grabbing a striking 19-point victory over Bush in New Hampshire just over a week ago. In the following days the poll lead reversed before leveling out.
McCain is under pressure to do well because he is an underdog in terms of fundraising, organization and party popularity, analysts said.
"McCain must show he's not a one-hit wonder," said Bob Oldendick, director of the Survey Research Laboratory at the University of South Carolina.
"South Carolina is very important to continue the momentum he started in New Hampshire," McCain Spokeswoman Heather Mirgahangir said.
Larry J. Sabato, government and foreign affairs professor, stressed that this weekend's race is pivotal for Bush as well.
"A McCain victory in South Carolina would be absolutely devastating to Bush," Sabato said.
Sabato said if Bush loses, many of his supporters will begin to openly question his candidacy.
Bush still has an overwhelming fundraising lead and has been able to campaign nationwide.
"We are the only [campaign] that has set up organizations in all fifty states," Bush Press Secretary Mindy Tucker said.
Bush also has the advantage in electoral politics after the South Carolina primary and the Feb. 22 primaries in Michigan and Arizona.
McCain draws his support from Independents and Democrats, who can vote in open primaries in South Carolina and Michigan. Later, it will be much tougher for McCain to win if he has not established himself as the nominee in closed primary states, where only registered Republicans may vote. "After [South Carolina and Michigan] the primaries work to Bush's advantage," West said.
The close race may make Virginia a key step in the nomination process. The Feb. 29 Virginia and Washington primaries follow Michigan.
"For the first time Virginia would become an important state in primary politics," Sabato said.
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