LEADING up to the election, you would not find a more vehement supporter of Vice President Al Gore. I would debate, argue and fight with my Republican friends about the election. My basic philosophy was that Texas Gov. George W. Bush would be the worst thing that could happen to this country.
Now, after one of the closest elections in American history, I'm crossing my fingers that Bush will come out on top.
No, I'm not having a change of political heart. But I think that a Bush presidency could hurt the Republicans and help the Democrats more than people would think.
Bush faces many challenges as president. The economy shows none of the booming signs it did during the Clinton administration, Internet companies are going bankrupt, and stock markets around the world are falling.
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While many people may blame President Clinton for any economic woes, Bush, as sitting president when the economic hardship hits, will take most of the heat. Just ask his father, President George Bush, who came under criticism after the recession of 1991, which some can argue came from the policies of his predecessor, President Ronald Reagan.
Even before Bush would be sworn in, he would face incredible obstacles. A bitterly partisan Congress, in particular a Senate, may be split right down the middle promising to make passing his agenda difficult.
At the same time, Bush's influence and stature will have been diminished. After all, he has no mandate from the people. And during his campaign, he tried to distance himself as much as possible from the federal government. That won't help him as he tries to govern with the same people he bashed during his campaign.
Facing a possible economic downturn, a divided Congress and a very controversial election in which he will lose the popular vote, Bush and his Republican friends in Congress won't be too optimistic about the 2002 and 2004 elections.
The Republicans gradually have lost their lead in Congress. Now, their advantage in the House is razor thin, and the Senate may be evenly split. A tough two years under a Bush administration may be just what the Democrats need to take control of Congress in 2002.
On the other hand, if Bush manages to survive the next four years, more power to him. I'll certainly rethink my opinion of Bush if he can bring the country through the many challenges that lie ahead. If Bush survives the Electoral College confusion, many of the fears liberals have will be unfounded.
For instance, one major threat of a Bush presidency would be the impact on the Supreme Court. Anywhere from two to four judges are expected to retire in the next four years. Bush has said that he would appoint very conservative justices, using Clarence Thomas and Antonin Scalia as models.
If Bush is incredibly stupid, he would make very conservative appointments. If that happens, he can probably say goodbye to many of the moderates who supported him in this election.
And if the Supreme Court then overturns Roe v. Wade, there's a good chance the Democrats could walk First Lady and New York Senator-elect Hillary Clinton into the White House in 2004. That's the last thing the Republicans want.
It's more probable that Bush will appoint moderates to the Court, out of fear of alienating voters and thinning support for re-election. If this happens, Democrats shouldn't be that worried about the Supreme Court issue.
Bush's conservative stance on many levels, from social issues to education, will no doubt soften as he tries to govern. Bush, to live up to his reputation as "a uniter, not a divider," will have to answer more to the political center and less to the right wing of his party. For the time being, a Bush administration doesn't seem so scary.
Hopefully Gore won't botch this opportunity for his party. If Bush wins in Florida, Gore should do the right thing and concede. Bringing up lawsuits about confusing ballots is only going to reinforce the stereotype of Gore as an intellectual bully. But if Gore bows out gracefully after the final count, he will have a tremendous advantage in the coming elections.
Think about this. There have been three elections in American history where the winner of the popular vote has lost the electoral vote.
In two of those cases, the popular candidate has gone on to win the presidency four years later.
Al Gore in 2004. Sounds catchy, doesn't it?
(Brian Cook's column appears Thursdays in The Cavalier Daily.)
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